我国外商直接投资影响因素的实证分析

【作者】 孟宇；

【导师】 王维国；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的不断发展,外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment)越来越受到各国的重视,因为外商直接投资是集资本、知识、管理于一体的“一揽子”创造性投资,成为最重要的知识和技术转移载体,在国民经济发展中发挥着重要作用。改革开放以来,特别是进入20世纪90年代以来,随着市场开放程度越来越高,市场广阔、发展潜力巨大的中国成为外商直接投资的热点,外资流入量持续攀升,2003年实际利用外资535亿美元,一跃成为世界上第一大引资国。但是,20世纪90年代下半期以来,我国利用外资的增速明显放慢,虽然增加的绝对值还在增加,但是不论是占全球FDI流入量的比重,还是占发展中国家FDI流入量的比重在1994年之后都呈现单边下滑趋势。这说明相对于其他引资国而言,我国对FDI的吸引力在1994年之后有所下降。所以,对影响我国FDI流入的各种显著因素进行深入分析,挖掘外商对华直接投资内在规律,对于构建我国持续吸引外商直接投资的比较优势,发挥外商直接投资在我国国民经济发展中的积极作用都具有重要意义。本文在国内外已有研究的基础上,从FDI国际流动的层次上,将我国看作一个整体,利用1985—2006年间各主要资本输出国对我国直接投资的Panel Data,通过建立Panel Data模型,实证研究我国FDI流入的影响因素,并结合Panel Data下的Granger因果关系检验,分析各相关因素与FDI之间的相互作用机制,最后指出我国吸引外商直接投资的比较优势、特点及存在的问题,并提出相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important means of product internationalization and deepening of international specialization, foreign direct investment is becoming one of the most important economic powers in the world increasingly. Much overseas research indicates that not only it can affect host country’s economic growth as a type of complementary capital, but also its technological spillover effect is the great reason why the host country wants to fetch FDI in.After China’s Reform and Opening-up, the rate of absorbing FDI reaches at 26.6% every year, and its scale is growing larger and larger. How to judge of the effect that FDI impacts on technological progress in China is turning into a hotspot of the research of FDI.This thesis tries to make my own explanation for this controversy. Firstly, it defines the meanings of technology, technological progress and technological spillover effect basing on the review of research results about the specialists all over the world. Secondly, FDI variable is introduced to the framework of economic growth theory and its influence to China’s economic growth is analyzed in both theoretical and positive ways. We find that the effect of Foreign Direct Investment over China’s Economic Growth should be divided into two parts: capital effect and technological spillover effect. Further more, we study the causality between foreign direct investment and other factors accelerating economic growth by Granger causality analysis, and educe the mechanism how foreign direct investment influences China’s technological progress. Finally, the conclusions and the policy suggestions about the utility of FDI in China are made.The innovation of this thesis is as follow. The first one is that FDI, as not apart of capital but an unattached variable, is introduced into the model of economic growth. The second one is that total factor productivity is divided into several sections. The causality between FDI and each section is analyzed and the mechanism how foreign direct invest investment influences China’s technological progress is found. The third one is that institutional change is regarded as important way for FDI to influence China’s technological progress.更多还原