我国城镇经济适用住房制度研究

【作者】 王萍；

【导师】 张向达；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国加入WTO，中国企业将面临着更大的机遇与挑战。传统财务理论中持续经营假设逐渐松动，企业面临的不确定性日益增大。企业因财务危机导致经营陷入困境，甚至宣告破产的例子屡见不鲜。事实上，企业陷入困境是一个逐步恶化的过程，这通常从财务上可以看出来。适时、准确的对企业财务进行预警分析是市场竞争体制的客观要求，也是企业生存发展的必要保障。财务预警模型可以为企业胜利到达彼岸起到保驾护航的作用。属于微观经济预警的财务预警模型，无论在国内还是国际上，都处于一种前沿性和探索性的研究阶段。企业财务预警作为经济运行的晴雨表和企业经营的指示灯，对其进行研究不仅具有较高的学术价值，而且有着巨大的应用价值。国外理论界对财务预警模型已做了许多研究，主要着眼于如何开展财务预警的方法分析以及预警模型和指标的研究。国外的企业财务预警研究在方法上以实证为主，但在企业财务预警原理和构建财务预警模型方面的研究并不多。国内对财务预警模型的研究，无论从理论上还是实践上都是一个弱点。普遍地财务危机预警模型的建立，对企业预防和化解财务危机，提高其危机预警管理水平有着重要的意义。本文研究目的有两个，一是通过实证研究检验出若干预警能力强的财务指标，建立起一套行之有效的动态财务危机预警模型，为投资者的投资决策提供依据；二是对已面临财务危机的公司，通过实证研究检验出影响公司财务危机进一步恶化的因素，并建立动态财务危机恶化预警模型。本文共五部分：第一部分绪论主要介绍了本文的研究背景、研究目的、意义、研究方法和研究内容；第二部分是财务危机预警模型理论综述，介绍了财务危机的定义，在比较和分析有关财务预警概念的基础上，对企业财务预警模型的内涵和监控对象进行了界定；第三部分是财务危机表现对指标体系建立的影响，分析了经营中导致的财务危机的表现，指标的选取原则和可以选取的指标，定义和比较各个可以选用的指标；第四部分基于主成分分析法构建财务危机预警模型。这是文章的主要部分，首先介绍了主成分分析方法的发展历程，介绍了主成分分析法的应用原理。然后根据本文对财务危机的定义，从我国上市公司中选取了符合定义的公司的财务指标进行选样分析；第五部分结论，探讨了企业建立财务预警体系的优缺点。在完善财务预警模型研究时，提出培养以价值创造为导向的企业财务管理意识；建立与完善管理信息系统；实现企业财务体系管理的良性发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 As China joins WTO, Chinese enterprises will face greater opportunity and challenge. Manage and suppose continuously in the traditional financial theory that becomes flexible gradually, the uncertainty that enterprises face increases day by day. Enterprises result in managing and getting into a difficult position because of the financial crisis, even the example of declaring bankruptcy is of common occurrence. In fact, it is a course worsened progressively that enterprises get into a difficult position, this usually could been found out from the financial affairs.In right time, accurate carrying on pre-warning analysis to enterprise’s financial affairs is the objective requirement for the market competition system, it is the essential guarantee of enterprise’s survival and development too. Financial early-warning system can reach the other shore to play a role in escorting for enterprise’s victory. Constructing the model of pre-warning in financial crisis has a profound significant to predict and reduce the financial crisis. It’ll improve the management level of pre-warning. At present, the scholars both inside and outside the country study the model of pre-warning in financial crisis, they focus on the constructing of the model about Multiple Regression Analysis, Multiple Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Network.There are two main purpose to write this thesis: Firstly, pre-warning in financial crisis has a profound significant to predict and reduce the financial crisis, it can help investors to avoid risk when they make decisions; Secondly, helping those enterprises that are in a difficult position to build financial pre-warning system to solve their problem.This thesis has five parts: The first part is about analysis background, purpose, analysis methods and so on; The second part summarizes the domestic and abroad achievements empirical study on the basis of analyzing and concluding these results. The third part analyzes the financial crisis and how to adopt the key factors. The forth part is the main part of the thesis, this part uses the method of Principal Component Analysis and the data of listed companies to construct the model of pre-warning in financial crisis. The fifth part is about the advantage and disadvantage of pre-warning system in financial crisis.更多还原