【作者】 龚诤；

【导师】 吴立扬；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 会计学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 在全球经济一体化和现代信息技术高速发展的背景下,现代仓储业得到快速发展。仓储不仅是整个物流产业的重要一环,也关系到我国整个国民经济的发展。由于仓储项目本身具有投资资金额度大,成本高,建设周期长以及投资回收期长等特点,因此,对其投资存在很大的风险。仓储项目投资的风险评价,是整个项目决策的重要前提和依据。目前,对仓储项目投资风险的研究,既不系统也不深入,在方法上主要是以定性的方法为主,对风险程度,很难清楚界定。文本结合高桥仓储项目投资的实际情况,分析了仓储投资项目的投资风险,并针对分析的风险尝试构建了仓储项目投资风险指标体系,并最后用模糊综合评价的方法对整个项目的投资风险进行评价。文章主要研究以下内容:第1章导论部分,主要论述本文选题的目的和意义、国内外文献综述、研究内容和研究方法以及技术路线。第2章从仓储项目投资风险评价的现状着手,分析其存在的问题和不足,进而提出基于模糊综合评价的仓储项目投资风险评价的改进思路。第3章主要阐述模糊综合评价的基本理论。首先,阐述一般意义上的模糊综合评价方法的理论基础,然后结合仓储项目投资的特点,阐述仓储项目投资风险的模糊综合评价的基本模型。第4章仓储项目投资风险分析。主要分析仓储项目投资的现状,并重点讨论仓储项目投资的过程中的风险及其识别。第5章仓储项目投资的风险评价指标体系的建立。根据仓储项目投资的风险及其识别,讨论仓储项目投资风险指标的建立原则,并构建仓储项目投资风险的评价指标。第6章高桥仓储项目投资风险的模糊综合评价。针对高桥仓储项目,对其投资风险进行深入而具体的剖析,选取项目投资风险评价指标,再运用专家打分法确定各指标的权重,并对高桥仓储项目投资风险进行模糊综合评价。第7章对全文进行总结和展望。这一章内容总结了本文所做的主要工作,主要是建立了评价仓储项目的投资的风险指标体系,用模糊综合评价的方法对其评价。另外,还对仓储项目投资风险研究的前景进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the globalization of our economy and the rapid development of modern information technology background, a modern warehousing industry has grown rapidly. The whole logistics warehousing is not only an important part of industry, is also related to the development of China’s national economy as a whole. Because warehousing projects itself with the amount of capital investment, high costs, a long construction period and the characteristics of a long payback period, therefore, the investment is a high risk.Warehousing projects investment risk evaluation is the prerequisite and decision-making basis of entire project. Currently, the research about the risk of warehousing projects investment is neither systematic nor deep. And qualitative methods on the level of risk is difficult to clearly define.Combining with the Gaoqiao warehousing projects actual investment, we analyse warehousing investment projects investment risks, and try to construct the risks of constructing the warehousing projects investment risk index system, and finally use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the entire project investment risk.The following parts constitute the thesis:Chapter 1 is the Introduction of the main topics discussed in this thesis the purpose and significance of literature, research contents and research methods, and technical route.Chapter 2 is from the current situation of warehousing projects investment risk evaluation, and I analyse existence problems and shortcomings, and proceeded to put forward a idea of comprehensive fuzzy evaluation on warehousing project investment risk.Chapter 3 is about fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the basic theory. Firstly, I illustrate the general sense on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the theoretical foundation, and then combine the characteristics of warehousing project investment, at last,it forms investment risks on warehousing projects fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the basic model. Chapter 4 is about warehousing project investment risk analyse. Major investment projects of the status of warehousing and storage projects focus on the process of investment and the risk of identification.Chapter 5 is warehousing projects investment risk evaluation index system. According to the warehousing projects and investment risk identification, warehousing projects discussed the establishment of investment risk indicators principles, and build storage projects investment risk evaluation index.Chapter 6 is Gaoqiao warehousing projects Fuzzy comprehensive investment risk evaluation. According to Gaoqiao warehousing projects ,for their investment risks of in-depth and specific analysis, and selection of project investment risk evaluation indicators, to use experts scoring method to determine the weights of the various indicators, at last, I evaluate the investment risk of Gaoqiao warehousing projects of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Chapter 7 the whole summary and outlook. This chapter summarizes the contents of the major work done by this thesis, mainly on the establishment of an evaluation warehousing projects investment risk index system, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. In addition, I also talk about the future research direction on the warehousing projects investment risk .更多还原