【作者】 赵飞；

【导师】 周渝慧；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 本文应用电力市场理论、经济学原理、博弈理论和电力系统原理等基本理论，对热电联产企业的竞价上网策略进行了研究。旨在为作为市场中部分电能供应者的热电联产企业提供一套完整的竞价上网方案，使热电联产这种高效的能源利用形式能够顺利地参与到我国的电力市场改革中。首先，对热电联产企业的成本组成和煤耗分配方法进行了分析，为热电联产企业发电部分参与竞价上网奠定了基础；第二，设计了基于Multi-Agent技术的电价预测支持系统，为热电联产企业制定竞价上网策略提供了参考；第三，在综合考虑了热电联产与普通火力发电的异同后，开创性的提出了热电联产企业参与电力市场竞价上网的收益函数，并应用博弈理论(非合作博弈理论和演化博弈理论)对热电联产企业参与电力市场竞价上网的过程进行了详细分析。在应用非合作博弈理论分析热电联产企业的竞价上网过程时，得到了包含热电联产企业在内的新的电力市场均衡电量与均衡电价。在应用演化博弈理论分析热电联产企业的竞价上网过程时，发现在无约束的市场中，热电联产企业倾向于与其他发电企业形成合谋共同抬高市场电价，强调了电力监管在维护市场健康发展方面的重要作用；第四，对热电联的收益进行了优化，应用人工智能领域中的禁忌搜索算法，得到了热电联产企业的最优发电量和最佳电热比(热化发电率)。同时，对热电联产企业的收益进行了敏感性分析，应用灰色理论对影响热电联产企业收益的各个因素进行了敏感性排序；最后，为热电联产企业总结了一套完整的竞价上网策略，得到了热电联产企业参与电力市场竞争时的最优发电量、最佳热电比和最佳电热比，并应用Matlab软件编程实现了制定上述策略的过程。更多还原

【Abstract】 To make the combined heat and power (CHP) enterprises participate in the competition of power market, this paper analyzes and discusses the bidding strategy for CHP enterprises applying the power market theory, economics principle, game theory, and power system technology.Firstly, the cost of CHP enterprises is analyzed, and the coal consumption of CHP enterprises is divided into two parts (power generation part and heating part). Secondly, the electricity price forecasting system based on Multi-Agent is designed. This system could be used to form the bidding strategy for CHP enterprises. Thirdly, the income function of CHP enterprises is proposed for the first time by consideration of the characteristics of the production mode of CHP enterprises. Based on this income function, the bidding process of CHP enterprises in power market is analyzed using the game theory (non-cooperative game theory and evolutionary game theory). With non-cooperative game theory, the new market equilibrium including CHP enterprises is obtained. With the evolutionary game theory, a law is found that the CHP enterprises would collude with other power generation enterprises to hold the market, and then the importance of power supervision and management is emphasized. Fourthly, the optimization of the CHP income is analyzed using the tabu search algorithm, and then the optimal power generation and optimal heat-electricity ratio is obtained. At the same time, the sensitivity of CHP enterprises is analyzed using the Grey theory. At last, a complete bidding strategy for CHP enterprises to compete in power market is formed, and the bidding system for CHP enterprises is implemented using the MATLAB language.更多还原