【作者】 崔民强；

【导师】 李天德；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 世界经济， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国国力的逐步增强和外汇储备的大幅增加，以及国际贸易和国际金融环境的改变，国际社会对人民币升值的呼声日益高涨。自中国人民银行在2005年7月宣布人民币汇率调整以来，人民币在不到两年的时间内已经升值到1美元兑换7.8人民币，并且还有进一步升值的预期。正是在这种情况下，本文对中国人民币的未来发展和对中国对外贸易的影响做了简要分析，并对在人民币升值条件下中国对外贸易结构的调整提出了一些建议。本文首先对汇率变动对外贸影响的一般规律，汇率变动对外贸影响的理论综述，弹性分析法，要素禀赋论及竞争优势理论做了简要阐述，奠定本文分析的基础。然后主要分析了中国人民币汇率的变化历史，并参考日元发展的历史和变化的原因，认为人民币汇率有继续升值的可能。接着主要分析了中国对外贸易结构包括商品结构和地理贸易结构的演变情况，中国的进出口结构在过去的20多年里发生了很大的变化，地理贸易结构也有很大的调整。直观从人民币汇率变化图和外贸结构变化图来看，二者之间存在相关关系。通过用弹性分析法来看，人民币汇率变化在较大程度上影响了中国对外贸易结构的变化，在人民币升值条件对中国商品进出口结构影响主要表现在：人民币升值能够减少中国初级产品的支出，所以人民币升值总体上有利于初级产品的进口，应该加强初级产品的进口；在劳动密集型和资本密集型产品上，升值将减少出口的收入，升值将使中国进口支出减少。总体上看，人民币升值不利于劳动密集型产品的收入增加，有利于中国资本密集型产品的进出口。根据上面的分析结果，然后结合商品结构和地理贸易结构的关系，本文认为应该加强急需产品尤其是初级产品如能源、原材料和先进设备、技术的进口力度，减少进口成本，同时密切关注国际市场价格变化；适当保持发展劳动密集型产业的出口，积极大力发展资本密集型产品的进出口；在贸易地理结构的调整上，首先积极加强对周边市场的开发，尤其是中亚独联体国家，其次平衡对主要贸易伙伴的进出口，减少贸易摩擦和纠纷，第三积极加强对拉美、非洲市场的开发和联系。本文的创新之处在于从实证的角度分析了人民币汇率从1980—2005年与初级产品、资本密集型产品及劳动密集型产品的相关性，分析了人民币汇率变化对他们各自进出口的影响，并结合我国的进口策略和进口需求，在调整商品进出口结构的同时，也要相应的调整市场结构。一方面可以较少贸易摩擦，另一方面也维护了我国的经济安全，促进我国经济发展。不足之处在于本文实证分析只是一个浅略的分析，有待做更深入的分析，还有没有把服务业包括进去，有待完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the Chinese national strength gradually enhancement and the foreign exchange reserve increases largely, as well as the international trade and the international finance environment change, the international society grows to ever greater heights to the Renminbi revaluation call. Since People’s Bank of China in July, 2005 announced the Renminbi exchange rate adjustment, the Renminbi already has revalued in two years to 1 US dollar exchanges 7.8 Renminbi, and also has the further revaluation anticipating. Is precisely in this kind of situation, this article has made the brief analysis to our country Renminbi future development and to our country foreign trade influence, and to our country foreign trade structure adjustment put forward some proposals under the Renminbi revaluation condition.This article first to the exchange rate change to the foreign trade influence general rule, the exchange rate change to the foreign trade influence theory summary, the elastic analytic method, the essential factor reported the tax concerned the competitive advantage theory to make the brief elaboration, lays foundation which this article analyzed. Then has mainly analyzed our country Renminbi exchange rate change history, and the reference Japanese Yen development history and the change reason, thought the Renminbi exchange rate has the possibility which continues to revalue. After that has been mainly analyzing our country foreign trade structure including the commodity structure and the geography trade structure evolution situation, our country import and export structure has the very big change in the pastmore than 20 years, the geography trade structure also had the very big adjustment. Direct-viewing looked from the Renminbi exchange rate change chart and the foreign trade structural change chart that, between the two has the correlational dependence. Direct-viewing looked from the Renminbi exchange rate change chart and the foreign trade structural change chart that, between the two has the correlational dependence. Through uses the elastic analytic method to look that, the Renminbi exchange rate change has affected the Chinese foreign trade structure change in an greater degree, mainly displays in the Renminbi revaluation condition to the Chinese commodity import and export structure influence in: The Renminbi revaluation can reduce the Chinese primary product the disbursement, therefore in the Renminbi revaluation overall is advantageous to the primary product import, should strengthen the primary product the import; On the labor-intensive form and the capital crowded product, the revaluation will reduce the exportation the income, the revaluation causes the Chinese import disbursement reduction. In the overall looked that, the Renminbi revaluation is disadvantageous to the labor-intensive product income increase, is advantageous to the Chinese capital crowded product import and export.According to the above analysis result, then the union commodity structure and the geography trade structure relations, this article thought should strengthen the urgent need product in particular primary product like energy, the raw material and the advanced equipment, technical import dynamics, reduces the import cost, simultaneously makes pays attention to the world market price change; The suitable maintenance development labor-intensive form industry exportation, positively vigorously develops the capital crowded product import and export; In in the trade geography structure adjustment, firstly positively strengthens to the peripheral market development, the central Asia Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)country, then the balance to the main trade partner import and export, reduces the trade friction and the dispute in particular, the third, positively strengthens to Latin American, the African market development and the relation.更多还原