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论东亚货币合作的前景及中国的现实选择
On the Future of East Asia Monetary Cooperation and the Choices of China
【作者】 李哲;
【导师】 李天德;
【作者基本信息】 四川大学 , 世界经济, 2007, 硕士
【摘要】 1997年亚洲金融危机的爆发,使人们深刻体会到国际货币体系的无政府状态给东亚经济和金融造成的沉痛伤害。随着欧盟区内欧元的成功启动和拉美国家对美元化的探讨,加强东亚区域内的货币合作,构建属于自己的货币金融体系,成为了当前及未来很长一段时期东亚地区的重要任务之一。在区域货币合作的趋势下,中国作为东亚地区最大的发展中国家,对地区经济的发展有着举足轻重的作用。中国应积极参与地区合作,协调与周边国家的关系,实现金融、贸易、政治等多方面的合作,不断提高其国际经济地位,在合作中充分发挥一个政治经济大国应有的作用,促进东亚货币合作的推进。本文以最优货币区理论为基础,立足东亚现实,对区域货币合作的发展状况、东亚货币合作的成本与收益、有利条件和主要障碍、东亚货币合作的模式设想以及中国在东亚货币合作中的地位和现实选择进行了全面的分析。本文认为东亚区域内目前还不宜进行较高层次的货币合作,但鉴于货币合作是一个动态的发展过程,所以,可以在东亚地区先进行较低层次的货币合作以及开展次区域的货币合作,即多重货币联盟路径,这是较为符合东亚现实的选择。从结构上本文分为四个章节:第一章对最优货币区理论的产生、发展及其最新动态进行阐述,并在此基础上对这些理论进行评述,寻求东亚货币合作的理论依据。第二章对东亚货币合作的发展历程、现状进行概括,从经济、政治、历史、宗教等多个角度分析了东亚货币合作的有利因素和不利因素,进而探讨东亚货币合作的可行性。第三章在前两章分析的基础上,对东亚区域货币合作的前景进行了展望,建议先从较低层次的货币合作以及次区域货币合作入手,分阶段地实现东亚货币合作的目标,然后论述了合作的近期设想和中长期设想。第四章回到中国的现实,分析中国在东亚地区所处的地位,阐明了中国参与东亚货币合作所能发挥的作用,然后从实际出发,对中国应如何参与东亚货币合作提出了建议。
【Abstract】 When Asia Financial Crisis broke out in 1997, People experienced the damage that the anarchy of international monetary system brought to economy and finance of East Asia. Along with the successfull starting-up of Euro and discuss of Dollarization among American countries, reinforcing monetary cooperation in East Asia region and constructing its own monetary and financial system are becoming an important mission from now on. In the trend of regional monetary cooperation in all of the world, as the biggest developing countries in East Asia, China has the pivotal function to the economy development in this area. China should positively participate in the Asian finance cooperation, set good relation with the peripheral countries, strengthen finance, trade, politics cooperation, enhances international status and honor in the entire area, and play the positive function in the cooperation which a powerful political and economical nation should- have, encourage the development of East Asia monetary cooperation.Based on traditional regional monetary cooperation theory and the reality of East Asia, this article analyzes the background and progress of East Asia monetary cooperation, the costs and benefis of cooperation, the influencial fators to the cooperation and the paths of cooperation. We come to a conclusion that as a whole region, it is not appropriate to carry on higher level of monetary cooperation among East Asian countries, but in the light of reality in East Asia region and that monetary cooperation is a dynamic development process, East Asia countries can carry on lower level of and sub-region monetary cooperation, that is to say, the route of Multiple Currency Monetary Union is more suitable for East Asian reality.This article stracture mainly divides into four parts: the first chapter introduces the development of Optimum Currency Areas theory which was conducted in European monetary integration pratice, then discusses these conclusions. The second chapter introduces the progress of East Asian monetary cooperation, then discusses the costs and benefits of cooperation, and the possibility of cooperation. The third chapter explores the path of East Asian monetary cooperation, on the base of the first two parts, this paper suggests East Asia countries should carry on lower level of and sub-region monetary cooperation. The last chapter comes back to China which took an important part in Asia, China should positively participate in the Asian finance cooperation, set good relation with the peripheral countries, strengthen finance, trade, industry, diplomacy cooperation, enhances international status and honor in the entire area, and encourage the construction of East Asian Monetary Union.
【Key words】 East Asia; Monetary Cooperation; the OCA theory; sub-region; China;
- 【网络出版投稿人】 四川大学 【网络出版年期】2008年 05期
- 【分类号】F823
- 【被引频次】1
- 【下载频次】392