【作者】 张虹；

【导师】 葛家麒；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 生态学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 农业在任何一个国家的经济中都占有重要的地位，而农业结构调整在农业的发展中起着至关重要的作用。改革开放以来，随着经济体制改革的不断深入和城乡居民收入水平的提高，大庆市的农业结构已在很大程度上改变了过去高度单一和效率低下的结构模式，农业内部各部门之间的结构比例日趋合理。但是，与变化更快的市场关系相比，农业结构的调整仍然存在着许多问题：农业生产结构不合理，农民增收渠道狭窄；农业生产经营模式单一；农民素质低，结构调整缺乏科技支撑；农畜产品加工业规模小，产业化水平低；农作物秸秆和副产品浪费严重等等。为此，为未来农业发展寻求新的途径，调整现有的农业产业结构势在必行。本文针对上述问题提出了农业产业结构优化配置思想，建立了区域农业产业结构优化模型体系，对该模型进行了灵敏度分析，并用微粒群算法对其求解以及对可持续农业做了定量综合评价。具体包括以下几个方面：1．本文在引言部分分析了当前国内外农业产业结构的动态，阐明了论文的研究背景和意义，总结了各种产业结构优化方法及算法，叙述了微粒群算法的研究动态，详细论述了论文的整体写作思路。2．运用数学规划的方法建立起体现经济、社会、生态综合效益的多目标优化模型。立足于大庆当前的经济技术条件和实际情况，建立以资源、社会需求和生态环境等为约束条件、以结构调整为目标的优化模型。对模型中的一些固定参数进行实地调研，一些时变参数采取组合预测、Logistic等方法进行预测，并且用数学方法对模型体系进行了灵敏度分析，最后建立起以2015年为报告期的大庆农业产业结构优化模型。3．深入的研究了微粒群算法的基本原理和实现技术，由于传统的微粒群算法容易陷入局部最优，所以论文加入了带有惯性权重因子的微粒群算法。在研究微粒群优化算法生物特性的基础上，充分考虑了群体中粒子的个体独立性和个体之间的信息共享性，提出了微粒群优化算法的移动模式，同时提出了竞争选择的新规则，并改进了基于竞争选择和惩罚函数的进化算法的适应度函数；结合微粒群算法的本身特点，设计了基于向量求值的微粒群算法进行操作，从而得到了一个利用微粒群算法求解约束优化问题的新的进化算法，实现了对多目标优化问题的非劣最优解集的搜索，实验结果证明了算法的有效性。4．在完成模型的建立和求解的基础上，需要对得到的结果进行综合评价，保证其可能达到的预定目标，由此建立了区域农业可持续发展综合评价指标体系。运用层次分析法从经济、社会生活、生态环境三个方面对区域农业可持续发展系统进行评价，确定了系统的水平指数、发展指数和协调指数，并设计综合评价模型，对近年以及报告期的农业可持续发展能力进行评价。本文所建立的模型体系、理论方法对于农业产业结构优化具有一定的实际指导意义，微粒群算法应用于模型求解也是个崭新的领域。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture has a very important position in a country’ s economicdevelopment, and theadjustment of agricultural structure plays a vital role in the development of agriculture. Since theReforming and Opening, agricultural structure of the Inner Da Qing agricultural area, atsomeextant, has changed previous unitary and low- efficient structural formulas as the continuousdeep-going economic system reform and improvement of the city and village residents’ incomelevel. The structural proportion of all departments in agriculture has rationalized, but comparedwith the high speed of market development, the adjustment of the agricultural structure is stillrather slow. Both in working thought and typical measure, the agricultural adjustment of the InnerDa Qing agricultural area has existed many problems: misunderstanding in policy; unreasonablestructure of agricultural industry; narrowness of improving farmers’ income; similar structure ofthe agricultural area, single running pattern; low quality of agriculture and farmers; serious wasteof the crops, the weakness of the governmental microscopic guidance; lack of actual adjustment ofrelation between industry and agriculture, city and village. Therefor, adjustment of agriculturestructure is coming in seeking new approach for futurity agriculture.It has set up agricultural structure and the system of models optimized, moreover carried onstability analysis, Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm and quantitative appraisal of sustainableagriculture study to this model. Particularly, it is launched from several following respects:1.This text has summarized and analysed the present agricultural state of development of ourcountry foreign country, it has expounded the meaning in which the thesis studies, Optimize themethod and multi-goals algorithms after summarizing various kinds of industrial structure, havenarrated the research dynamic status of Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm and sustainableappraisal method, it has described the thinking of whole writing of the thesis in detail.2.It has set up multi-goal optimized models of economic,ecology and social benefit inmathematical programming. Has set up national resources, cultivated area, ecology restraintconditions including social demand, and the agriculture structure optimized model’s system facingDa Qing’s practice situation. Some fixed parameters in model was set up by investigate;the otherchanged parameter has predicted by combined forecasting, Logistic forecasting, etc. Has proved thestability of the model system from mathematics, at last has set up the optimized models of thesustainable agricultural structure of Da Qing taking 2015 as report period. 3.Researched the basic principle and technology of realizing of the Particle SwarmOptimization algorithms,for traditional PSO gets into part best easily, so the paper get up decreasingweight.The thesis proposed an asynchronous pattern from analyzing on the biologic character ofparticle swarm optimization,thinking abundant particle swarm of optimization sharing betweenparticle swarm,it has set up moving model about PSO.It has proposed new rules for the competitionand selection,it has improved fitness function based on competition and selection.Combing thecharacters of PSO,this paper has designed vector evaluated PSO.Thus,it has proposed a newevolutionary algorithm through PSO to solve constrained optimization problems.The search for thepareto optimal set of multi-objective optimization problems is performed.Numerical simulationsshow the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.4.On the basis of models and solving, it need to appraise to the result that is received,guarantee it to reach the goal booked, therefore structure the comprehensive evaluation indexsystem of agricultural sustainable development,build the sustainable development index systemwith the analytic hierarchy process from three aspects:economic,social,resource and environmentalecological and gave a synthetically judgement, gave level index,development index andcoordination index,and design synthesis appraisal model to ability of agricultural sustainabledevelopment in recent years and report period.The model system built of this paper has certain piratical meaning, PSO has certain innovationfor the model is asked and solved.更多还原