【作者】 邢冠；

【导师】 胡跃红；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 统计学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 城乡居民收入差距问题是制约我国经济进一步发展和社会稳定的大问题,是许多学者关注和研究的话题。因此对城乡居民收入差距的研究是很有实际意义和学术价值的。本文正是在总结学者们研究的基础上展开进一步研究的。本论文的研究主要运用描述性统计的方法﹑回归分析模型和相关系数法对我国城乡居民收入差距进行多角度的分析研究。通过运用描述性统计的方法研究了我国改革开放后1978-2005这一时期我国城乡居民收入差距的变化过程,得出:城乡居民收入差距在我国改革过程中不同阶段的程度是不同的,大致经历了缩小—扩大—又缩小—再扩大—逐步稳定的过程,呈现出W型特征。这种差距除了和农业的生产效率比较低外,国家的政治﹑经济体制和政府的政策行为选择也发挥了更重要的作用。对城乡居民收入差距的影响因素的分析则是运用回归分析模型,结果得出:农业占国内生产总值的比重、农业支出占财政支出的比重、乡村人口占总人口的比重、农业税占总税收的比重、农业基本建设支出等因素对城乡居民收入差距影响最大。运用相关系数法对城乡居民收入差距省与省之间进行了比较分析是本论文的一个研究重点。通过研究发现,在全国31个省区中,有28个省区的相关系数大于等于0.7(上海取近似值0.7),占90.32%,说明大部分省区差距变化与全国的差距变化具有完全的同步性。因此,在研究城乡居民收入差距变化时,可以从全国总的数据进行研究,其结果是适用于全国各地的。同时,造成各省区城乡居民收入差距的原因及缩小差距的对策在全国具有同一性,中央采取的缩小城乡差距的政策在全国具有普遍性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Income disparity between urban and rural residents is a big issue affecting China’s economic development and social stability, and thus a hot concern of many scholars. It is of practical importance and academic value to study such income gap in China and this paper is furthering such studies which have been conducted by others.This paper mainly analyzes the income gap between urban and rural residents by using descriptive statistics, regression model and Correlation analysis. By observing the changes of income d disparity between city and countryside from the post-reform period of 1978-2005 with the method of descriptive statistics, it is concluded that such income disparity is different in different phases of the reform process of China, as witnessed by a cycle of“narrowing-widening-narrowing-widening-stabilizing gradually. Such income gap is a result of not only low productivity in agriculture, but also the nation’s political and economic system and governmental policies. With the regression model to look at elements affecting such income gap, it comes out that the ratio of agriculture to the whole GDP, agricultural expenditure out of the total budget, the ratio of rural residents to the total population and the ratio of agricultural taxation to the total national revenue as well as agricultural infrastructure expenditure are important factors in producing such discrepancy. This conclusion is reached undoubtedly under the influence of limited statistics. This paper focuses on the comparative analysis of such income gap between different provinces with the method of correlation analysis. Studies show that out of the 31 provinces in China, 28(90.32%) have the related coefficient of no less than 0.7(the number for Shanghai is about 0.7), which means such income gap changes in most provinces go in line with the national picture. So the conclusion made by using national statistics in the studies of changes of income gap between urban and rural people are applicable nationwide. At the same time, the reasons for such income differences and solutions for it are similar and thus the policies adopted by the central government to narrow such gap are generally applicable nationwide.更多还原