【作者】 范彦君；

【导师】 额尔敦扎布；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古师范大学 ， 政治经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 最近几年内蒙古经济的快速增长引起了全国上下的特别关注,然而,快速的经济增长中技术效率如何以及经济增长的成本有多少呢?因此,本文将技术效率、能源产量和经济增长关系以及增长代价进行了具体的分析,首先,运用结合时间序列和截面研究的Panel Data测算随机前沿生产函数法估算内蒙古1997年-2005年间各盟市及内蒙古整体平均的技术效率指数,发现平均技术效率水平较低并且地区差距较大,由于内蒙古不同地区存在技术效率的较大差异,形成了区域经济增长的差异,进而形成不同地区社会发展的差异。在分阶段估算的结果来看,1997-2005年间技术效率呈递减趋势,同时对全要素生产率的分析来看,1989年-2002年普遍偏低,2003年的TFP值较高,表明这时技术、知识、政府行为及制度性因素等对经济增长的贡献率也较高,而到2005年TFP值下降了4个百分点,说明在2003年-2005年间,技术知识和制度性因素对经济增长贡献率是下降的,这与这几年的经济增长主要依靠资本投入拉动是一致的,因此,技术知识和其他制度性因素的影响表现为下降。对于技术效率偏低的原因分析,本文选择了经济增长与能源产量两组时间序列进行计量分析来验证是否一定存在着某种相关性与均衡关系和因果关系。运用计量经济学的最新成果协整分析方法与格兰杰因果检验法分析1985—2005年间内蒙古的经济增长与能源产量的关系。从OLS(普通最小二乘法)估计的长期均衡方程来看,表明序列在这21年间存在协整关系,即经济增长与能源产出量存在长期均衡的关系。然后运用格兰杰因果检验对这种稳定均衡的关系进行分析表明内蒙古的能源产出增长是经济增长的Granger Cause,即能源产出增长有效的促进经济增长;而经济增长并不是能源产出增长的Granger Cause,可以得到能源产出到GDP存在单向因果性。据此,本文对经济增长所付出成本作了进一步分析,统计核算了1987年-2005年间每年经济增长所要付出的直接和间接的经济损失,得到历年经济增长成本呈上升趋势,正好反映了历年技术效率下降的原因。最后,建立代价增长模型估算得到的结论是:在经济增长中成本平均是经济增长的2.2倍。这个数值远远超过了目前国内学者所估计的损失比重。因此对于这一数据的可靠性还有待进一步研究作以比较。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the recent years, the increasing growth of Inner Mongolian economy arouses the special attention in the whole nation. However, what is the actual situation of the Technical Efficiency in the economic growth and how about the cost of the economic growth? Therefor, the paper analyse the Technical Efficiency,the connection between the Energy Source yield and the economic growth, and the cost of the economic growth concretely. First of all, this paper estimates a production function of Inner Mongolia and calculates the Technical Efficiency by applying the Stochastic Frontier Approach according to last nine years relevant data. The results indicates that he Inner Mongolia economy is in a state of low Technical Efficiency, even equally without Technical Efficiency and the obvious gaps exist among different regions during the years from 1997-2005.Then the differences of the Technical Efficiency result in the differences of the economic development. And from the result of different periods, the variational trend of the Technical Efficiency is degressive. While according to the analysis of the TFP, the TFP is low generally during 1989-2002, besides 2003,it is high .Maybe because of the high contribution rates that are Technique, knowledge, governmental behavior and the institutional factor. While until 2005,the TFP decline the 4 percent. This result is consistent with the high capital investment。Therefor, Technique, knowledge and other institutional factors are displayed falling. The paper chooses the year time sequence between the Energy Source yield and the economic growth in order to validate the equilibrium and the cause and effect correlations between them. By applying the latest econometric production—Co-integration Analysis and the Granger cause and effect test analyze the correlations between the Energy Source yield and the economic growth. We can conclude that ln yt and ln xt are co-integrate during last 21 years from the long-term equilibrium equation. Then the Granger cause and effect test indicate that the Energy Source yield is the Granger Cause of the economic growth, that is to say, the Energy Source yield can accelerate the economic growth. Hereby, this paper analyze the cost of the economic growth and compute the cost of past 21 years. According to the statistical data of direct and indirect cost , the whole cost is degressive and it just show us that the cause of the descending Technical Efficiency. Finally, founding a low cost growth model in order to estimate the cost coefficient and the cost is 2.2 times than the growth. This data is far more than the other proportion. Therefor we must do lots of work and for its reliability.更多还原