【作者】 赵艳；

【导师】 赵明； 甄江红；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 工业化和城市化是每一个社会必经的发展过程,它们就好像一对孪生姊妹,工业化必然带来城市化,反过来,城市化又促进工业化。世界各国工业化与城市化进程中有一个规律:在工业化初期,工业化快于城市化,工业化推动城市化发展,工业化与城市化能够协调发展;在工业化中期,也就是工业化快速增长时期,工业化过于超越城市化发展,导致城市发展出现很多问题,城市化进程受阻,工业化与城市化协调发展被打破。由于区域特征、体制背景、社会经济环境及历史基础的不同,工业化与城市化关系表现出较为明显的时空差异。因而工业化与城市化协调关系成为学术界讨论的热点问题之一。本文以包头市行政区域为研究范围,在全面分析研究区的自然、社会和经济概况,整理、分析有关资料及调查数据的基础上,结合包头市的工业发展及城市建设现状,依据突出重点、整体性、普遍性、层次性和可操作性原则,构建了包头市工业化水平与城市化水平评价指标体系,采用专家咨询法与层次分析法确定各指标权重;运用多层次多目标综合评价模型对其工业化水平、城市化水平及其协调发展程度进行综合评价与分析。以包头市14年的统计资料为依据,在运用系统动力学模型对各个子系统进行分析、仿真研究的基础上,对包头市工业化与城市化水平及其协调发展程度做出预测并进行方案优选,以进一步分析包头市工业化与城市化协调发展的主要制约因素,从而为更好地协调二者的关系提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is an inevitable law that every society will experience industrialization and urbanization through development, they are close as twin, industrialization will bring urbanization, conversely, the urbanization will promote the industrialization. There is a law in the industrialization and urbanization of the countries in the world: in the early days of the industrialization, industrialization is faster than urbanization,industrialization will prompt urbanization,industrialization and urbanization could develop coordinately;in the middle days of the industrialization, which is the days that industrialization develops very fast and industrialization goes beyond urbanization too much which cause many problems in the development of city and urbanization is hindered,the coordinate development of industrialization and urbanization is broke up. The relationship of industrialization and urbanization shows obvious difference in different time and area because the difference of regional feature, system background, social economy environment and historic basic.Therefore, the coordinate development relationship of industrialization and urbanization became one of the most important questions that are discussed.This paper takes BaoTou as the range of research, analyzing the nature, social and economic general situation of the research area; For the experience of related research, in the foundation of sorting out and analyzing relevant data, combines the industry development and city construction of BaoTou, according to emphased,entire and maniputative principles,the paper sets up the index system of industrialization and urbanization; making use of the comprehensive evaluation model of much multi-layer target to carry on the evaluation,the weight of each index is defined by the method of the AHP and each system is analyzed and researched by using the System Dynamics model which is established buy using the evaluation model and related methods in according to the data of 14 years of BaoTou ; gives comprehensive evaluation and makes an estimate of industrialization and urbanization of the BaoTou though calculating;The writer adjusts parameter and set up different coordinate simulate schemes to chose the best one; analyzes the main restrain factors of industrialization and urbanization of BaoTou city to find the better policies and ways to coordinate the relationship of industrialization and urbanization.更多还原