【作者】 程勇；

【导师】 张士云；

【作者基本信息】 安徽农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 党的十六大提出本世纪头20年全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标,这个目标是鼓舞人心的,也是需要付出艰苦努力才能够实现的。县域经济作为全国经济布局中发展比较滞后、经济总量和人口都占较大比例的区域经济,它未来的发展将在很大程度上影响全面建设小康社会的进程。因此县域经济如何发展,如何加快发展,成为各级政府、经济学界最为关注的问题。本文运用区域经济学、计量经济学、产业经济学的相关理论,采用规范分析和实证分析、定量分析和定性分析相结合的研究方法,从安徽县域经济的现状入手,全面分析安徽县域经济发展的现状和问题,并使用聚类分析方法,将全省56个县分为三类:较发达县、欠发达县和贫困县。并形成三类县域不同发展水平的原因进行了分析。在建立县域经济综合实力评价体系的基础上,然后以综合经济发展水平为因变量,以资本存量、产业结构、人均财政收入、农业资源禀赋和能源水平五个方面的影响因素为自变量,建立了多元线性回归模型,揭示了各影响因素在安徽县域经济发展中所起的作用。总体来讲,安徽县域经济发展比较滞后,经济基础条件较差,农业经济比较薄弱,农民收入水平低,增长缓慢,结构问题突出,县域财政收支困难。这些问题不解决,或解决得不好,将会影响到安徽全面建设小康社会的进程。全文在探讨了影响安徽县域经济发展的主要原因后,据此提出了促进安徽县域经济发展的对策和建议:第一、转变政府职能,提高政府效率;第二、构筑县域经济跨越式发展的社会平台;第三、大力推进农业产业化;第四、走新型工业化道路,加快推进县域工业化进程;第五、积极推进县域城镇化进程;第六、改进金融服务,解决县域经济发展的资金问题。本文力争在以下几个方面有所创新:第一,在研究安徽县域经济现状的基础上,利用人均指标和结构比例指标对安徽省56个县进行归类,且对形成三类县域不同发展水平的原因进行了分析;第二,运用OLS方法对安徽省县域经济影响因素进行了实证分析,并根据各个因素进行了具体的原因分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The grand targets about all-round well-off society in first 20 years of this century were put forward by CCP during 16TH NCCPC. These tarkes are not only inspiring, but also will be realized by hardworking. The intra-county economy is a regional one which has developed very slowly and whose population and economic gross occupy large propotion in our country’s economy. Its development in future will affect to a large extent the build progress on all-round well off society. How to develop and how to develop intra-country economy are particularly concerned by all levels of governments, especially to many local goverments.In this thesis, I use relevant theories of regional ecnornics, system engineering methord, and industry’s economics, and adopt research methord of gange annlysis and facts analysis, quantitative analysis and qualitative to thoroughly analyze conditions and problems of intro-county economy and make use of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis to induce 56 counties into 3 sorts .so as to analyze these characters According to these conditions, and analyze the reasons for forming three kinds of different development levels, then I set up plura linear regression model to announce the role of every influence factor in An hui country economic development by regarding economic development level as depentent variable and regarding the five influence factors(stock of the capital, industrial structure, Per capita budgetary income, innovation ability agricultural innovation ability, and energy level) as independent variable.Totally, compared with the natioonal economy or average level of the whole Anhui province, Anhui’s intra-county economy still has some prominent problems, for example ,its population is large and occupies much proportion, its economic foundation term is worse, the speed of development is lower than urban economy, agriculture economy is weaker, income level of most farmers is low and is enhance slowly, finance income and expenditure are very difficult.The full text, after discussing the main reason influencing Anhui intra-country economy to be developing, put forward the advices and suggestions of promoting the economy development of An hui intra-country economy inview of the above: Firstly, alter the functions of the government, improve government efficiency. Secondly, build county economy great-leap-forward development society platform, thirdly, push forward agricultural industrialization quickly. Fourth, build a new road to industrialization leaks, accelerates the course pushing forward intra-county economy industrialization. Fifth, push forward county region to urbanization actively; Sixth, improve the serves of finance, resolves the fund problem existing in county economy develops.There are two innovations in this text. The results are following:Firstly, hierarchical cluster analysis is used to induce 56 counties into 3 species on the basis of analyzing average indexes and structure and proportion indexes, and have a analysis of forming three kind of intra-country economy. Secondly, use the method of OLS to carried out demonstration analysis on An Hui Province county economy influencing factor, and carry out the concrete analysis of causes according to each factor.更多还原