经济快速发展过程中的人民币汇率升值问题研究

【作者】 郭承先；

【导师】 史妍嵋；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 世界经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的快速发展,人民币汇率自然而然会遇到升值压力,人民币汇率必然要随着这种趋势进行调整。因此,如何成功地应对我国在经济快速发展过程中的汇率升值问题而不影响经济的健康发展,就成了我们必须要关注的问题。从国际经验来看,两个比较相似的案例是20世纪70年代以后德国和日本的汇率改革,两国都在经济快速发展过程中遇到了长期的汇率升值问题,如何从德国、日本的案例中找到经验和教训为目前我国应对汇率升值压力提供启示,这同样也很重要。本文分为五部分来阐述这些问题。第一部分是理论部分。在这一部分中主要分析了汇率的相关概念,西方有关汇率决定理论以及影响汇率变动的主要因素,最后,从理论角度分析了汇率的调整可能会对一国经济产生的影响。第二部分回顾了德国、日本在经济快速发展中马克、日元汇率变动历程以及两国在应对汇率升值过程中的不同对策。最后,总结了德国和日本在汇率升值过程中对我国有借鉴意义的经验和教训。第三部分讲人民币汇率的历史变化和人民币汇率升值压力。在这部分中首先回顾了人民币汇率的历史变化,然后分析了我国在经济快速发展过程中持续的国内外升值压力来源。第四部分是关于人民币汇率升值对我国经济的影响。该部分主要是从我国具体情况出发,分析了人民币汇率的调整可能给我国经济带来的收益和成本,并认为汇率的调整从总体来说对我国经济影响是利大于弊。第五部分是对策部分。为了成功应对人民币汇率升值压力,我们必须要适度调整我国当前汇率水平,同时也要采取措施来改变因汇率缓慢升值所带来的单边升值预期。此外,避免对策失误,努力创造条件加快人民币可自由兑换进程,也是必不可少的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with our country economy quick development, the RMB naturally meet the pressure of revaluation, the RMB exchange rate must carry on the adjustment inevitably along with this tendency. Therefore,How should we to successfully cope with the pressure of exchange rate revaluation in the our country quick development process but not to affect the economical health development, this has become the matter of concern we must to focus on. Look from the international experience, two quite similar cases are 20th century 70’s later Germany and the Japanese exchange rate reform, in the quick development process, Both countries all meet the question of the exchange rate long-term revaluation, How from German and Japan case find the experience and the lesson and provide the enlightenment for the present China to deal with the exchange rate revaluation pressure, this is similarly very important. This article divides into five parts to elaborate these questions.The first part is the theory part. This part mainly analyze the exchange rate related concept, the Western related exchange rate decision theory and the influence exchange rate change primary factor, finally, from the theory point of view, analyze the exchange rate adjustment possibly to be able the influence which produced to a country economy.The second part review Germany and Japanese exchange rate change course and analyze Germany and Japan difference countermeasure which deal with the exchange rate revaluation pressure; finally, summarize Germany and Japan has the model significance experience and the lesson in the exchange rate revaluation process to China.Third part introduce that the RMB exchange rate historical change and the RMB revaluation pressure. In this part, firstly reviewed the RMB exchange rate historical change, then analyze the domestic and overseas revaluation pressure origin of our country in the quick development process.The fourth part is about the RMB revaluation to our country economy influence. This part mainly is embarks from our country’s special details to analyze the RMB exchange rate adjustment possibly to brought our country’s the income and cost, and think the exchange rate adjustment is more advantage than the shortcoming to our country economy influence.The fifth part is the countermeasure part. In order to succeed to deal with the RMB exchange rate revaluation pressure, we must have to adjust our current exchange rate level moderately, simultaneously must take the measure to change the unilateral revaluation to anticipate. In addition, avoids the wrong countermeasure, improvement exchange control system,Creates the condition to speed up the RMB to be convertible currencies.更多还原