【作者】 王淼；

【导师】 魏连雨；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 城市交通是城市发展的基础和前提,交通问题已经成为影响城市功能正常发挥和城市可持续发展的一个全局性问题。客运是运输需求中最活跃的一个领域。随着道路运输业的持续快速发展,客运枢纽系统所起的作用越来越重要,而站场布局对于枢纽系统作用的发挥有着重要的影响。目前客运交通枢纽规划与建设是诸多困扰我国城市交通的问题之一。交通运输枢纽是一个国家或地区统一交通运输大系统的重要组成部分,是各种运输方式衔接和联运的主要基地。交通枢纽的出现对于促进城市交通系统的高效运行、优化城市交通的出行结构、改善城市空间布局等都有着积极的意义。道路客运枢纽既是城市对外辐射的重要载体,同时也是城市内部运输网络的衔接点,交通运输枢纽客运站点的布局问题,关系到交通运输内、外部运输的协调与否,直接影响着旅客运输的质量。本文结合天津实际,首先在通过调查和收集数据资料的基础上,运用回归分析、时间序列、趋势预测、灰预测、组合预测等多种方法进行运输量发展预测和社会经济发展预测;然后运用系统规划的思想,在理论分析研究的基础上结合城市总体规划及专家意见提出了两种可行的布局方案并提出了社会评价内容;再利用层次分析法及模糊综合评价的方法对两个布局方案进行综合评价,得到比较满意的布局。评价过程中引入隶属度的概念对定性指标和定量指标进行标定,有效的处理人们在评价过程中本身所带有的主观性,以及客观所遇到的模糊性现象,保证评价的科学和公正;最后提出客运站场的建设序列,并针对场站建设提出一些政策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 City transportation is the foundation and prerequisite of city development and transportation has become the key issue that impacts the normal operation of the city and the persistence of its evolution. Passenger transportation is one of the most active fields in transportation demand. With the rapid development of road transportation, the passenger traffic terminal system, on which the layout of terminal has great effect, has played a more and more role .At present the planning and construction of passenger transportation terminal is one of the difficulties associated with city transportation in China .Traffic transportation terminal is an important component of transportation system in a country or the region, and is a main base for connection as well as transport in different transportation ways. It has positive meaning in many respects such as promoting the city traffic system on a high-efficient level, optimizating the going-out structure and improving the city space distribution. Road passenger traffic terminal act a two-side role: a carrier for external radiation and a node for internal network connection, so its distribution of stations have great influence on internal and external transportation coordinating, which influence directly the passenger transportation quality.First,on the base of investigations and data materials collection according the reality of Tianjin ,apply the methods of regression analysis、time array、trend prediction、grey model prediction、combined forecasting and so on to forecast the passenger traffic volume as well as the Social economic development; Then apply the thought of systematic planning put forward two kinds of possible distribute schemes and the content of social assessment on the foundation of the theory analysis research and master plan of the city besides the opinion of experts; Next take advantage of the AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation to appraisal the schemes so as to get the satisfactory results. Throught introducing the concept of membership degree to fix the qualitative quantitative indexes, deal with effectively the subjective factors and the fuzzy phenomenon encountered in the course of evaluation so as to make sure the scientific and justification of the evaluation; The last propose the construction series of all the passenger stations and some policy and propositions direct against the station’s construction.更多还原