【作者】 刘志霞；

【导师】 张加恭；

【作者基本信息】 华南师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 地价是调节土地利用方式的重要手段，是土地市场的核心，也是市场调节配置土地资源的杠杆。城市住宅地价作为城市地价的一个重要分支，其分布情况对城市住宅土地交易、城市住宅用地规划、房地产建设开发等方面具有深远影响。本文从空间和时间两个角度对深圳经济特区的住宅基准地价分布情况进行了研究。第一，本文阐述了地价的基本概念，包括基准地价、标定地价、出让底价和市场交易价等；并介绍了城市住宅地价研究的基本理论，包括地租地价理论、基准地价估价理论和土地区位理论。第二，本文研究了深圳住宅基准地价的空间分布情况。首先介绍了空间研究的方法，包括空间分析方法、地统计方法和空间插值方法。然后以ArcGIS软件为辅助工具，建立深圳住宅基准地价信息图层。通过ESDA工具对样本点数据进行检查分析，从而选择相应的空间插值方法，最终生成预测表面得到地价等值线。通过以上数据处理的结果，分析深圳住宅基准地价的空间分布特点。并结合自然因素和社会经济因素两个方面的内容对影响住宅地价空间分布的影响因子进行了分析。第三，本文对深圳特区住宅基准地价的时间分布进行研究。首先分析了特区内四个行政区的住宅地价指数的时间序列，然后选择相关的因子与住宅地价指数进行回归分析，得到影响因子为人口数、GDP、职工工资总额和房地产开发投资额，最终建立地价指数的预测模型。经过研究，结论如下：(1)通过ArcGIS为辅助工具，可以准确获取并处理更多的样本点信息数据，从而提高研究的准确性。(2)深圳特区的住宅基准地价空间分布不均匀，以福田区整体水平最高，盐田区最低。特区内有多个地价高峰点，分别位于南山区、福田区和罗湖区。(3)深圳特区住宅基准地价空间分布的区位影响因子有自然因素和社会经济因素两个方面，社会经济因素包括交通设施、商业网点、公共服务设施、旅游景观的分布。(4)深圳特区住宅基准地价时间分布呈波动变化，各行政区的地价指数变化过程并不相同，总体来看呈上升趋势。(5)结合理论和前人研究基础，选取影响住宅地价指数的主要因子为常住人口、GDP、职工收入总额和房地产投资总额等。通过回归分析，建立了地价指数的时间预测模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 The urban land price is one of the important methods for adjusting the land utilization. It is the kernel of land market. The urban land price effects and decides the land resource distribution. Residential urban land price is an important branch of urban land price. Its distribution deeply effects the transaction of residential urban land, the plan of residential urban land and the exploitation of real estate.The thesis deals mainly with the distribution of the residential land in the central area of Shenzhen special economy zone from both spatial aspect and temporal aspect.First, the thesis expounds some basic concepts in land price research field. In addition, it presents some basic theory which relates to urban land price distribution, such as the theory of land rent and land price, the land valuation theory and the land location theory.Second, the thesis studies the spatial distribution of residential land price, and uses some methods of spatial study such as spatial analysis, geostatistics and spatial interpolation. The thesis digitizes and proofreads the residential land price data of Shenzhen special economy zone by using the ArcGIS software. Then it checks the data with GIS assisted spatial analysis tool and establishes the isopleths of the land price distribution of Shenzhen Special economy zone. After that, the author analyzes the main characteristics of land price distribution. In addition, the author analyzes the main influential elements of spatial distribution of residential land price.Finally, the thesis studies the temporal distribution of residential land price in Shenzhen special economy zone. In this part, the thesis analyzes the variation of residential land price from 1997 to 2004, and concludes several factors such as population, GDP, the real estate investment volume, which effect the index of residential land price. Then the thesis establishes the prediction model of the index of residential land price.The conclusion is as follows:(1) Adopting GIS analysis tool, it can accurately obtain and analyze geographical data of land.(2) The spatial distribution of residential standard land price in Shenzhen Special economy zone is uneven. The peak price appears in Futian area. There are many high price points observed in Nanshan, Futian and Luohu area.(3) The factors which effect the spatial distribution of residential standard land price are both natural and social elements. The social elements include transportation facility, commercial, the public service facilities and the tourism resources distribution. (4) The temporal distribution changes in wave way. In different areas, the index of residential land price is different, but the general trend is ascending.(5) The thesis chooses several factors which effect the index of residential land price. They are the resident population, GDP, the labor total income and the real estate total investment. Through the regression equation, the thesis establishes the prediction model of the index of land price in Shenzhen Special economy zone.更多还原