【作者】 陈永锋；

【导师】 宋增基；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本文系统且较为全面地介绍了西方关于货币政策传导渠道的理论,并以这些理论为基础,通过定性与定量相结合的实证分析方法,采用协整检验和基于VAR模型的Granger因果检验方法,对我国货币政策传导渠道(主要分为货币渠道和信贷渠道)的进行了实证检验,采用数据为1998年至2006年的季度数据,并简要分析了实证结论的政策含义。实证结果表明在,中国货币政策能同时通过货币渠道与信贷渠道进行传导,相对而言,信贷渠道发挥着比货币渠道更加重要的作用,信贷渠道仍是中国占主导地位的货币政策传导途径,同时对利率渠道分析发现我国的国内生产总值、固定资产投资和贷款利率的相关度不是很高;对资产价格渠道分析,发现我国的国内生产总值、固定资产投资和股票市价总值的相关度也不高。资产价格渠道发挥的作用相当小,股市并没有像发达国家那样有力地影响产出和投资。从影响传导渠道出发,分析影响货币传导渠道的因素,其中主要包括:央行对基础货币的调节缺乏灵活性,中央银行的独立性和自主权不够强,商业银行经营机制不健全,不良资产太多,银行结构过于集中及贷款不合理,信用体系不健全,利率市场化程度不高,国有企业公司治理机构不合理,产权不清晰,中小企业融资难,资本市场和债券市场不成熟,由于缺乏社会保障制度,居民对未来收入不乐观,消费不积极等等。本文最后提出了完善货币政策传导渠道的对策。主要针对以上各影响因素提出各种政策建议,如:加强中央银行的作用,加快商业银行改革,完善金融市场,更好地发挥传导作用;加快国企改革,使之成为市场经济的主体,协调配合货币政策的实施;加快利率市场化进程,发挥利率的传导作用,发挥股票市场优化资源配置的作用等等。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper introduce the theories of the monetary policy transmission channel systematic .Based on it, Experienced method of combining together with quantitative and qualitative analysis from micro subject agency was used to study the monetary policy transmission channel(divided into a monetary channel and a credit channel mainly) in China in this paper. we use cointegration test and Granger Test based on the Vector Auto-regression Model to carry out the empirical analysis of China’s monetary policy transmission channel and the efficiency of monetary policy with the quarterly economic and financial data between 1998 and 2006.The results show that the money channel and the credit channel are both the important channels of Chinese monetary transmission, while the impact of latter on macro-economy is stronger, so the credit channel plays a dominant role in the monetary transmission channel in China.Then, we analyses many elements of affecting the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission channel. Mainly including that the central bank lacks the flexibility to the regulation of the basic currency , the independence and autonomy; Because of operating mechanism being imperfect, commercial banks have many bad assets and unreasonable loans, and also the structure of the bank centralize too much; The corporation governance structure of the state-owned enterprise is unreasonable, the property right is not clear, small-and-medium-sized enterprises have trouble in financing; Because of lacking the social security system, residents are pessimistic to their future income, so they can’t consume actively etc. Therefore, the effect of the monetary policy transmission channel depends on there factors:Whether the draft is reasonable and scientific; Whether commercial bank and financial market can conduct efficiently; Whether the enterprise and consumer can cooperate with it. This chapter mainly begins with the above several aspects to analyses the effect of the factors towards the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission channel.This paper finally propose the countermeasure of the mechanism of monetary policy transmission. Mainly in view of the above each influence factor proposed each kind of policy suggested, for example: Strengthens the function of the Central Bank, speeds up the innovation of the commercial bank to reform, perfect the money market, Speeds up the enterprise to reform, causes it become the main body of the market economy, Speeds up the innovation of the interest rate market ,exert the function of the Interest Rate Channel and so on.更多还原