【作者】 石雪莲；

【导师】 王学真； 高峰；

【作者基本信息】 山东理工大学 ， 产业经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 “民以食为天”,粮食对于人类是须臾不可或缺的条件。粮食问题关系到国计民生,是国家发展和社会稳定的基础。我国是发展中国家而且是一个人口大国,粮食生产的波动必然引起粮食的安全问题,引起国民经济的波动。山东省是农业大省,是我国最重要的粮食生产基地,山东省粮食生产的波动关系到全国粮食产量的波动,因此本文用现代经济学的研究方法,对山东省1983-2004年粮食产量的波动状况及影响粮食产量波动的因素进行了定性与定量分析,目的是揭示粮食产量的波动规律并找出影响波动的决定性因素,以期为山东省粮食产量平稳增长提供理论基础。本文根据周期波动规律对1983-2005年山东省粮食生产状况进行了分析。分析结果表明,山东省粮食生产有以下特征:(1)粮食生产的波动是以增长为背景的波动;(2)总产波动类型为古典型波动;(3)粮食总产波动频繁,且扩张期短于收缩期,有进入较长周期波动趋势;(4)波动幅度大、波动指数不稳(5)变异指数大;(6)易受政策影响。本文以1983-2004年的时间序列对影响粮食产量波动的因素进行计量分析表明,在其它因素不变的情况下,粮食作物播种面积对山东省粮食产量的影响最大,其后的顺序是机械总动力的投入、上一期的市场零售价格和受灾面积。文中最后根据分析结论提出了相应的平抑粮食波动的政策建议:切实保护耕地,稳定粮食作物播种面积;依靠科技,努力提高粮食生产效益;大力发展农业机械化;优化粮食区域布局,确保粮食安全;做好农业气象预报,减少农业气象灾害。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grain production is the foundation of agriculture that has great effect on the national economy. It is well known that shortage of grain can lead to chaos of economic development. Shandong Province is one of the most important regions of grain production and circulation in China. So the study on fluctuation of grain production in Shandong Province has been chosen so as to supply the theoretical foundation of the increase of grain production in Shandong Province.The law and factors of fluctuation of the grain yields in Shandong Province from 1983 to 2005 were analyzed in qualitative analysis with modern economic study method and the result was tested by the quantitative analysis.In first, the state of the fluctuation of the grain yields was described. The research showed that although the total yields tended to rise, the fluctuation of grain was very acuity, the frequency was high. The fluctuation type belonged to classic cycle fluctuation, and the policy is sensitive to yield.Secondly, in factors, which caused the fluctuation of grain yields in Shandong Province, were analyzed. The quantitative analysis from 1983 to 2004 showed that the total areas of grain was most sensitive to yield, then was the power of the agricultural engine, the last time price of the grain, and the natural disaster.Thirdly, several good advices are been put forward which are protecting the total area of the grain, spread of agricultural science, effective policy in increasing grain yield, good weather forecast in agriculture and so on.更多还原