高新技术产品跨国扩散的理论与模型研究

【作者】 李峰；

【导师】 龚艳萍；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 高新技术产品在市场扩散的过程中，与传统的创新产品在市场、技术和竞争波动性方面相比表现为更大的不确定性，从而消费者的异质性特征在扩散过程中将表现得愈加明显。传统的扩散模型(如Bass模型等)大多忽视了消费者异质性，因而往往很难准确地描述高新技术产品的扩散过程。而从消费者行为角度，基于消费者个体采用决策构建的个体扩散模型理论上来说更能科学合理地对高新技术产品的市场扩散过程作出预测。本文通过微观和宏观的整体把握，心理学、市场营销学和扩散理论的交叉研究，在对国内外有关扩散理论和模型的大量综述的基础上，结合高新技术产品的特征，对影响高新技术产品在海外市场扩散的因素及其跨国扩散路径进行了定性分析，并通过跨国扩散风险因子的引入，从消费者行为的微观角度构建了一个宏观层次的跨国扩散模型来对高新技术产品的跨国扩散过程进行定量描述，同时对该模型与传统的总体扩散模型之间的理论联系进行了初步的探讨，实现了二者在一定合理化假设条件下的相互转化，因而可以从某种程度上表明模型的构建具有一定的科学性和合理性。最后，本文设计了一个情景实验，运用因子分析、卡方检验等研究方法来实证检验跨国扩散模型的预测效果，实证结果表明：引入跨国扩散风险因子后，模型能够从宏观上更好地反映高新产品的跨国扩散过程。从而在理论上和实证上分别论证了跨国扩散模型构建的有效性，使本文最终实现了定性分析和定量分析的有效结合。更多还原

【Abstract】 Compared with traditional innovative products in market,technology and competitive violation, the hi-tech products have a greateruncertainty in their diffusion process. Therefore, the character ofconsumer heterogeneity would turn to be more conspicuous. Most oftraditional diffusion models (eg. Bass model) ignore consumerheterogeneity, hence, it is hard to exactly describe hi-tech productsdiffusion process. However, based on consumer behavior and consumer’sindividual adoption decision, the individual diffusion model cantheoretically predict hi-tech products diffusion process more scientificallyand reasonably.This dissertation takes a holistic view on micro and macro, throughthe crossed study of psychology, marketing and diffusion theory, wesummarize many past diffusion theories and models both at home andabroad. Moreover, by considering hi-tech products’ characters, we makea qualitative analysis for the influencing factors of hi-tech products’diffusion process in oversea market and their cross-national diffusionroute. Then, through introducing a cross-national diffusion risk factor, weconstruct a cross-national diffusion model of macro-level to describehi-tech products’ cross-national diffusion process quantitatively based onconsumer behavior micro view. Meanwhile, we make an elementaryresearch for the theoretical relationship of our model and traditionalaggregate diffusion models, and we have achieved their mutualtransformation under reasonable assumptions. Hence, it can indicate theconstruction of model has its scientificity and reasonableness. Finally, wedesign a scene experiment and use factor analysis, chi-square test toprove the prediction effect of our cross-national diffusion model. Theresult shows that our model can predict hi-tech products’ cross-nationaldiffusion process better after the introduction of cross-national diffusionrisk factor. This study has proved the validity of our model in theory andexperiment. Thereby, we have finally achieved the effective combinationof qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.更多还原