【作者】 李兴学；

【导师】 钟平安；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 水库群与河道堤防组成的防洪系统是最为典型的流域防洪工程系统，本文以钱塘江流域为背景，开展水库群预报调度技术研究。概述了非工程防洪措施的内涵与意义；综述了水文模型、防洪调度理论与方法研究的现状与进展，明确了流域防洪预报调度研究的前沿和热点。分析了钱塘江流域洪水发生特点及其时空分布规律、工程分布状况和工程特性；从增加预报调度模型运用的灵活性和模型对钱塘江洪水局地性特点的适应性出发，将钱塘江流域防洪系统概化为单库与不同组合库群子系统，以利于在库群联合调度时采用了分块补偿方法。根据防洪系统分解的结果和水库群补偿调度的需要，以及钱塘江流域气候和下垫面特征，选用三水源新安江模型作为流域与水库实时洪水预报模型。进行了6座大型水库和5个重点子流域的洪水预报参数率定，并进行了模拟检验。针对各水库控制面积以及各水库到达共同防洪断面的水流传播时间基本相当的一类并联水库群，提出了库容分配实时调度模型，该模型能反映空间上不同防洪点的重要性差异，实现补偿模式与削峰模式的自由组合；提出了水库群实时防洪调度逐级交互模型，该模型能针对每个水库构建不同目标函数，反映各水库防洪任务的差别，并能间接体现水库之间的“有限”联系。详细分析了汛限水位设计与管理的差别以及汛限水位动态控制的可能性，提出了“逐步松弛法”、“后续降雨预留法”两种调度期内最高控制水位的实时控制方法；提出了以兴利与防洪预泄能力确定超蓄水量，以减少闸门操作频度和超蓄风险的汛限水位动态控制技术。更多还原

【Abstract】 The flood control system composed by reservoir group and rivers is the most typical flood control system of river basin, the paper takes Qiantang River basin as an example, the technique for forecast and operation of reservoir group is studed. the nature and significance of non-engineering measures of flood control is summarized in the paper; it is summed up that the current status and development of hydrology models and the theory and methods of river basin flood control operation; and frontier and hot points of the river basin flood control system real-time joint operation research are pointed out.The paper analyzed flood characteristics, spatial and temporal distribution law, distribution condition of engineering and engineering characteristics. In order to improve flexibility of forecasting and operation models, as well as adaptability for locality of Qiantang River flood, the flood control sysem of Qiantang River basin is decomposed into multi-subsystem made up of single reservoir and reservoir group, so we can use partition compensation method for joint operation of reservoir group.According to decomposition result of flood control system and the requirement of reservoirs compensation operation, as well as climate and underlying surface conditions of Qiantang River basin., the paper chose Xin’anjiang Model to forecast real-time flood of river basin and reservoirs, flood forecast parameters are determined from six large reservoirs and five sub-river basin, and carried on simulation and examination for the forecast model.The paper put forward reservoir storage allocation model for the parallel reservoir group, it is basically consistent that reservoir control area and flow travel time of each reservoir arriving a common flood control cross section. The model can show important difference of different flood control point, it realized free combination for compensation mode and peak reduction mode. Meanwhile, the multi-level interactive model for flood control operation of reservoir group is put forward in the paper, the model can set up different target function for each reservoir, can respond the difference of each reservoir flood control mission, and indirectly embody limited contact of the reservoirs.The paper analyzed the difference of design and management for limited water level during flood season, as well as the feasibility to dynamic control of limited water level during flood season. Two kinds of real-time control method for the top control water level are put forward including Gradual Relaxation method and Follow-up Rain Reserving method. In order to reduce gate operation frequency and over impoundment risk, the paper put forward dynamic control technique of limited water level during flood season, it confirms overtake storage capacity through pre-discharge capacity of benefit promotion and flood control.更多还原