地下经济规模测度方法研究

【作者】 范世宇；

【导师】 李培军；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 作为一种特殊的经济现象，地下经济所涵盖的经济活动非常广泛。自1978年以来地下经济在中国逐渐呈急剧膨胀之势，并正以它特有的方式对我国社会经济施加着有利或不利的影响。然而，在中国现有统计制度下在核算地下经济方面是存在一定局限性的。受其影响，多年来中国统计界对地下经济的定量研究并未引起足够的重视。目前，中国有关地下经济的量化信息极度缺乏，这给我们对地下经济进行深度的研究带来了极大的困难。不无遗憾的是，在联合国统计处1968年颁布的SNA中，地下经济活动并不被认为是生产活动，不主张将其纳入生产核算范围。在1993年的SNA中，地下经济仍不包含走私、卖淫、贪污受贿等方面，但当今理论界中所提到地下经济包含的范围却大得多。在中国，地下经济的规模不仅需要从总量上进行研究，同样需要对中国地下经济的地域分布特征进行探讨。我们也可以结合其他领域的方法对地下经济的规模作分析，比如，从税收角度对中国地下经济的规模作估测。另外，还可以定期或不定期的对地下经济活动进行住户调查，估计地下经济活动参与情况和收入规模。从总体上大致掌握地下经济的规模和以及地下经济对GDP增长率、失业率等的影响程度，从而促进货币政策和财政政策的有效贯彻执行。本文吸收了国内外专家学者对地下经济测算的各类研究成果，包括：沃纳和西蒙斯的直接调查法模型、法伊格提出的交易法估测模型、总收入与总支出差异法、夏南新博士修正的灰色系统(Grey System)模型、P·卡甘(P·Gagon)提出的现金比率法模型、坦斯(Tanzi)经过对现金比率法模型修正后导出的税收诱致性现金持有量模型、印度学者盖本塔和米塔提出的G·M估测模型。主要目的就是为测算中国地下经济规模的现实途径寻求一种有序的度量方法为广大学者提供一个参考和借鉴的平台。通过在对这些估测方法的比较研究当中寻找出一套合理的、科学的估测方法对我国改革开放以来的地下经济规模及发展方向进行估测。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one special economic phenomena, the economic activity which the underground economy covers is extremely widespread. For example, producing and selling fake and shoddy commodities underground factories, smuggling, drug trafficking, pornography, gambling, trafficking in persons and the operation of a business without a license, and falsifying invoices, misappropriation or embezzlement of state assets and bribery, hidden jobs, and all kinds of transactions on the black market are all here for the underground economy.The underground economy gradually has assumed potential of the suddenly inflation since 1978 in our country, and is exerting by its unique way to our country social economy is being advantageous or the disadvantageous influence. However, under the China existing statistical system in the calculation underground economy aspect is the existence certain limitation. Under its influence, China’s statistical community for many years to the underground economy does not pay sufficient attention to quantitative research. At present, China is very little quantitative information on the underground economy. This for carried on the depth to the underground economy the research to bring the enormous difficulty.However, it is not without regret, as promulgated by the United Nations Statistics Department in 1968 SNA, underground economic activities are not considered to be in production and is not in favor of production will be included in the accounting area. In the 1993 SNA, the underground economy does not contain smuggling, prostitution, embezzlement, bribery, but as mentioned in the contemporary theorists have covered a much larger underground economy.In China, the size of the underground economy not only in terms of aggregate research, we also need the geographic distribution of China’s underground economy explore. We can also combine other areas of the methods for analysis of the size of the underground economy, for example, from a tax perspective estimate for the size of China’s underground economy. Moreover, it may be regular or irregular activities of the underground economy household survey estimated underground economic activity and income scale. Taken as a whole, and more or less mastered the size of the underground economy and as GDP growth of the underground economy, the impact of the unemployment rate, the monetary and fiscal policies to promote the effective implementation and enforcement.In this paper, the absorption of domestic and foreign experts and scholars to study the underground economy as measured by various achievements, including : the direct investigation model of Warner and Simons, the transaction estimating models of Feige, differences in total revenue and total expenditure act, the amended Gray System model of Dr. Xia Nanxin, P·Gagon’s models of the cash ratio and so on. My main aim is to forecast the actual size of the underground economy in an orderly way to find a way to measure the majority of scholars to provide a reference or emulation platform. Through methods of estimation of these studies find a rational and scientific way to measure the development of China’s reform, opening up and development direction for the estimated size of the underground economy.更多还原