【作者】 关珂；

【导师】 路金喜；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国社会经济的快速发展，许多地区对地表水、地下水等常规水资源的开采利用已经达到了极限，开发利用新的淡水资源已经成为当前迫在眉睫的重要任务。在此背景下，洪水作为一种非常规水资源，越来越多的进入了人们的视野。洪水给人类带来过巨大的灾难，但洪水并不是只具有灾难属性，在某种程度上它还具有资源的属性。2003年，国家防汛抗旱总指挥部办公室正式提出了“洪水资源化”的概念，要求在承担适当的、可控制风险的前提下，尽可能利用洪水资源。而合理抬高水库汛限水位作为一种有效挖掘洪水资源潜力的措施和方法，也开始越来越受到人们的重视。本文作者在广泛阅读和分析国内外相关研究成果的基础上，以洪水资源化研究为背景，以水库抬高汛限水位的风险效益综合评估为主题，建立了基于直接积分法(DC)和蒙特卡罗法(MC)的水库防洪极限风险率计算模型和基于BP神经网络的水库汛限水位方案风险效益综合评估模型；结合张河湾水库的实际情况，通过对张河湾水库的暴雨洪水特征、汛期划分规律、水库调洪过程进行详细的分析和计算，利用本文建立的模型从风险和效益两个角度对张河湾水库的汛限水位调整方案进行了综合评估，弥补了传统评估方法没有从风险角度进行评估的缺点。本文的主要内容和研究结果如下：(1)由汛期隶属度的计算结果得出张河湾水库汛期隶属度在7，8月达到最大值，传统的汛期分期方法对张河湾水库是适用的。水库主汛期向非汛期过渡的“后汛期”比较明显，在抬高汛限水位蓄水过程中，必须加强对暴雨洪水的监控。(2)通过分析水库防洪极限风险的各种不确定性影响因素，推导出水库防洪极限风险率的概率分布公式，然后基于蒙特卡罗法(MC)建立计算模型，进行模拟计算。整个模型充分利用了DC法理论性强和MC法计算方便的优势。计算结果表明：张河湾水库汛限水位提高到480.5m后，水库所增加的防洪风险仍在可承受范围之内。(3)通过水库调洪模拟演算结果表明，在发生校核洪水情况下，480.5m方案可能出现的最高洪水位488.3m低于张河湾水库库区移民水位线488.5m；同时对480.5m方案进行回水计算后结果表明，该方案满足水库回水不进入山西省的设计原则。因此张河湾水库抬高汛限水位对库区淹没的影响非常小，淹没风险可以忽略不计。(4)综合考虑张河湾水库抬高汛限水位的风险与效益指标，通过BP网络建立的综合评估模型对各方案进行了综合评估，结果表明：480.5m方案优于478.5m方案。将此结果与原方案评估结果进行比较，通过实例计算，证明了本文所提方法的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the fast development of the social economy of the country, exploitation andusing of surface water, groundwater and precipitation have already reached the limit,exploiting and using the new fresh water resources has already become the currentimminent duty. In this instance, as non-routine water resources flood has come intopeople’s field of vision gradually.Flood brought enormous disaster to people, but flood is not only disaster attribute butalso resource attribute. In 2003, the national flood prevention and fight a droughtheadquarters proposed officially the concept of "flood resourcing" that requested to use theflood resources as far as possible on the premise of taking suitable and controllable risk.Raising flood control level of the reservoir reasonably as a kind of effective measure andmethod which excavated flood resources potential, it has been regarded by peoplegradually.Author read and analyzed research result widely, under the background of floodresoucing, as risk benefit analysis of raising reservoir flood control level the subject,reservoir flood prevention risk rate computation model by the method of DC and MC, andrisk benefit synthetically appraisal model of flood prevention level by the method of BPnetwork were established. The actual situation of Zhanghewan reservoir was integrated,rainstorm flood characteristic, flood season division rule and reservoir adjustment floodcourse of Zhanghewan reservoir were analysised and calculated. Flood control leveladjustment project was appraised synthetically based on the models from the two aspects ofrisk and benefit, the disadvantage of traditional appraisement method that don’t appraiseform risk was fetched up. Main content and result of this article as follows:(1) Zhanghewan reservoir flood season subordination arrived the highest valuebetween the month 7 and 8, the traditional flood season method is suitable based oncalculating result of flood season subordination. Reservoir "the last flood season" isobvious during transition form main flood season to after the non- flood season, in theprocess of raising flood control level, the monitoring of rainstorm and flood must bestrengthened.(2) Reservoir flood prevention risk rate probability distribution formula of reservoirflood prevention risk rate was deducted by analyzing no determinate influence factors ofreservoir flood prevention risk, computation model was established and commutated based on (MC). The whole model has fully used superiority of the DC with strong theory andthe MC with convenient computation. The computing result indicated that, afterZhanghewan reservoir flood control level raised to 480.5m, the flood prevention risk whichthe reservoir increased was controlled in the scope of withstanding.(3) Simulating calculation result of reservoir adjusting flood indicated, in thesituation of examination flood, in the case of 480.5m plan, highest flood water level488.3m is lower than immigrant water level 488.5m of reservoir district; backwatercomputation was carried on based on 480.5m plan; results indicated that, this plan satisfiedthe design principle of reservoir backwater not to enter Shanxi Province. Therefore,influence was very small adjusting flood control level to the reservoir district submergence,storing water submergence risk of reservoir district can be not considered.(4) risk and benefit target of raising flood control level were consideredsynthetically, every plan was appraised synthetically by the model based on BP network,the results indicated: The 480.5m plan surpassed the 478.5m plan. Compared this result tooriginal plan, validity of the method in this paper was proved by instance calculation.更多还原