【作者】 孟庆娜；

【导师】 张晓光； 王秀芳；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 近十年来，有效需求不足直接制约着国民经济的可持续发展，扩大内需成为了当前经济发展的立足点。现阶段农村人口占我国全部人口将近60％，农村居民消费不足是影响我国消费不足的重要原因。因此，要高度重视农民消费需求，正确分析与科学评价农村居民的消费现状，进而引导和促进农村居民不断扩大消费需求，对建设社会主义新农村和全面建设小康社会具有重要意义。河北省是一个重要的农业大省，其农民消费问题显得尤为突出。本文以河北省农村居民消费需求为研究对象，采用理论分析与实践分析相结合的方法，围绕河北省农村居民消费需求的变化状况、影响因素以及发展潜力展开研究，并据此提出相应的对策建议。文章首先系统地评述了具有代表性的消费理论作为研究的基础；然后，从消费水平、消费结构、消费方式三个方面具体分析了河北省农村居民消费的变化状况，分析表明河北省农村居民消费属于轻度滞后型模式，虽然消费总量明显上升，消费结构不断优化，消费方式也发生了很大的转变，然而与城镇居民相比仍存在着很大的差距；接着，运用定量分析和定性分析相结合的方式，对影响农村居民消费需求的因素进行分析，表明收入是影响农村居民消费需求的重要因素，不同类型的收入对农村居民的消费需求都有不同程度的影响，此外，消费观念落后、消费环境差、社会保障制度滞后、金融体系不健全、财政投入不足等因素制约着农民消费需求的扩大；继而运用消费函数和扩展性线性支出系统模型分别对农村居民的消费水平和消费结构进行实证分析，并对未来五年内消费的发展前景进行预测，发现扩大农村居民的消费需求还有很大的空间，交通和通讯、医疗保健、文教娱乐用品及服务将成为新的消费热点；最后提出了进一步提高农村居民消费水平、优化农村居民消费结构的相关对策建议，包括增加农民收入、优化农村消费环境、完善农村社会保障体系、规范农村金融环境和加大财政支持力度等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The deficiency of efficient demand has restricted the sustaining development ofcountry economy directly since nearly ten years. So expanding domestic demand hasbecome the stand of economy development currently. Because of rural populationsaccounting for nearly 60%, the deficiency of rural households’ demand is the improtantreason which influences the deficiency of domestic demand. Therefore, we should regardconsumption demand of rural households to heavens. Through analysing and valuing theconsumption actuality correctly, we should lead and promote rural households to expandconsumption demand continuously, which has an improtant meaning to constuct the newsocialistic country. Hebei is an important agriculture province, and its rural households’consumption problem seems to be outstanding. This text takes consumption demand ofrural households in Hebei province as researching object, adopts the method whichcombines theories analysis with demonstration analysis, researches on the changing status,influencing factors, developing potential of rural households’ consumption demand inHebei province, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.Firstly, this text comments on the representative consumption therories systematicallyas the base of reasearch. Secondly, this text analyses the changing status of ruralhouseholds’ consumption in Hebei concretely from consumption level, consumptionstructure and consumption manners. It indicates that the consumption gross of ruralhouseholds has increased obviously, the consumption structure has optimized, and theconsumption manner has changed clearly, but there is a very big consumption gap betweenrural households and town households. Thirdly, though analysing the influencing factors ofconsumption using quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, it indicates that income isan important factor and different types of income influence consumption differently.Moreover, some factors also restrict the expanding of rural households’ consumption, suchas the draggling Comsumption concept, the bad consumption condition, the lagging societyguarantee system, the distemperedness of financial system, the lack of pubic financedevotion and so on. And then carry on demonstration analysis to consumption level andconsumption structure using consumption function and ELES model, which can forecastthe developing foreground of rural households’ consumption in the coming five years. Wecan discover that there is a big room to expand consumption demand of rural households, and vehicle, communicaiton goods, medical treatment, health care, entertainment, cultureand education things will be the new consumption hotspots. Finally, this text putsforward some corresponding countermeasures to advance consumption level andoptimize consumption structure of rural households, such as increasing farmers’ incomes,improving rural consumption conditions, perfecting society guarantee system andfinancial system, enlarging pubic finance supporting strength and so on.更多还原