【作者】 朱立波；

【导师】 姚水洪；

【作者基本信息】 北京化工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本文主要研究工程建设项目全过程生命周期中的风险问题，采用了专家问卷调查法、概率论中心极限定理、正态分布、集值统计原理分析等方法，详细地从风险识别、风险评价及风险应对三个方面对风险进行研究并应用于具体的工程项目，为进一步检验结论的有效性提供了实际的数据。本文首先从风险识别入手，从风险内容的不同方面，将风险分为6个一级风险和24个二级风险；在风险识别的基础上，根据工程建设项目的实施进度，将整个工程的建设过程划分为五个阶段(立项阶段、设计阶段、招标合同阶段、建设阶段及收尾阶段)，并将每个阶段工作进行了概括性的介绍，同时归纳出了阶段内可能发生的二级风险，从种类和数量上对工程建设项目生命周期过程中的风险有个整体的认识。风险评价部分的数据收集采用专家调查法进行，界面采用VC编程形式，数据采用集值统计分析方法进行处理。数据整理的过程中，本文考虑到风险因素的随机性特征以及中心极限定理带给我们的启示，假设工程建设项目生命周期过程中的风险具有正态性，建立风险函数模型，根据正态分布函数的特性，计算出风险高、中、低三个等级的划分界线，为工程建设项目整个生命周期过程中的风险级别划分确定了理论依据，这是本文在风险分级研究中进行的一点探索，具有一定的新意。同时计算出了风险函数相应的正态分布曲线及相应的上下限函数曲线，为风险函数的正态有效性检验提供了理论方法。本文在风险应对研究中，建立双因素风险应对函数，将风险管理优先度量化，引入到风险应对函数中，并将风险应对函数应用于实际的工程建设项目中；通过将风险高、中、低三个级别的风险与风险管理优先度因子(大于1、小于1)两种情况六种组合的研究，输出了风险应对策略表；这是本文在风险应对理论的应用研究中的一点摸索，具有一定的新意。为每一个处于六种情况之中的风险制定了相应的解决办法；同时输出了风险散点图，以不同的形状、颜色代表风险种类及发生时间，为整个项目的风险分布情况做出了详细的描述。更多还原

【Abstract】 the main content of the dissertation is "risk problem for the engineering project in the whole process of life cycle", adopting expert’s questionnaire survey, Probability Theory and the Central Limit Theorem of Probability, normal distribution, Concentrated Numeric Statistic Method etc, it detailed carry on a research to the risks from Risk Identification, Risk Evaluation and Risk Disposal, and apply the conclusion of research in the ZHAOGU project and provided an actual data for examination conclusion.The thesis commence in Risk Identification, it divided risks into 6 first class risks and 24 second class risks, according to the progress of the engineering project, the life cycle of the engineering project is divided into five stages(launch stage, design stage, bids and contract stage, construction stage and the ending stage),and generally introduce the content of work in the each stage, which have a whole understanding to the risk in the process of life cycle for the engineering project from the category and the quantity. The method of data collections is expert’s questionnaire survey, which is designed by VC, the method of data processing is Concentrated Numeric Statistic Method. During the analysis, Considering of the random of the risks and the Central Limit Theorem of Probability, the thesis do the assumption that the risk in the life cycle for engineering project matched the normal distribute, and established risk function model, according to the characters of the normal distribution function, the thesis solutes the ratings of the risks, and get the correspond normal distributes curve and the testing curve.In the process of risk disposal, the thesis firstly introduce the risk management priority factor and establish the risk disposal function model, and output the table of the risk strategy disposal method, by the analysis of the combination of the data about the value of risks and the risk management priority factor, in the meantime, It get the diagram of the risk, which do a detailed description for the risk of engineering project.更多还原