【作者】 欧阳力；

【导师】 李欣然；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着用电负荷的快速增长和近几年成批大容量机组的集中投运,电网建设滞后问题日显突出,为提高电网输送能力以缓解电力供需形势紧张的局面,我国电网建设力度也日渐加大。一方面大力发展特高压交、直流输电,以提高输电网输送能力,另一方面也不断加强110kV及以下主要承担供配电任务的地区电网的建设,投资力度日益加大。为了更加科学地分配和利用地区电网建设资金,电网规划管理部门迫切地需要客观准确地从宏观上对地区电网建设规模进行定量评估。本文在对大量统计数据深入分析的基础上,建立了地区电网建设规模评估指标体系,该评估指标体系主要包括由各电压等级变电容量、变电站座数(或变压器台数)、线路长度、线路条数等指标构成的“规模因子集”和由年最大负荷、全社会用电量、GDP、人均可支配收入、城镇化率、人口等构成的“影响因素集”。运用灰色关联技术分析各规模因子与各影响因素间的内在联系,系统地分析了灰色关联算子及分辨系数对关联分析结果的影响,并给出了其选择原则和具体方法。应用统计经济学原理,用平均发展速度及发展系数量化分析各指标的发展变化趋势,并以此为基础在评估指标体系的框架内,结合关联分析结果,构建了电网规模量化评估综合模型,用电网发展协调系数等量化评估结果,从各规模因子、各电压等级、地区电网总体规模等多个层次多角度评估电网规模的合理程度。运用灰色建模理论,以GM(1,1)、GM(1,N)及多变量灰色优化模型为主要工具,为各评估指标建立相应的数学模型,揭示其发展变化及相互作用规律,并结合协调系数等评估结果,获得未来各规划水平年电网规模的理想发展水平,从而更直接地为电网规划提供决策参考依据。在相关理论研究成果的基础上,本文在Visual Studio.NET开发环境下,以VB.NET和ASP.NET作为主要开发工具,应用UML等软件开发技术及最新的网络技术,结合电力系统的特点,开发了基于企业内部网和万维网C/S和B/S混合异构体系的地区电网建设规模评估系统。实际运行表明,本系统安全性高、兼容性好,使用和维护方便。本文的理论研究成果将促进地区电网建设和投资规模的“经验型”审核向“分析型”控制的转化,而评估系统的推广应用将有效地提高电力部门的信息化水平和电网规划管理工作效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increase of power consumption and load in recent years, the electrical network construction lag problem becomes more and more serious. In order to alleviate the strained situation, our country began to strengthen the electrical network construction. On the one hand , vigorously develops ultra high voltage direct current power transmission system; on the other hand, also unceasingly strengthens the area power network, which usually refers to 110kV and below distribution network, construction investment arises fast. In order to scientifically assign and use the construction fund, the power network planning department urgently needs to objectively and accurately evaluate the area power network construction scale on macroscopic.In order to evaluate the scale of area power network, the paper has established the evaluate indices system, which includes“the scale indices set”(such as transforming capacity, line-length, and so on) and“the influence factors set”(such as social power consumption, highest load, population, etc). By means of grey relational analysis technology, the rule between the scale indices and the influence factors is analyzed based on massive statistics annuals. The paper systematically research the influence of grey relation operator and distinguishing coefficient on the results obtained by gray relation analysis, and present the criteria and practical methods determining these coefficients. Analyzes the development tendency of indices with the development coefficient and the average increasing rate, and take this as the foundation, the area network scale evaluation unified model is made, using network developing concordant coefficient to evaluate the reasonable degree of area power network. Take GM(1,1), GM(1, N) and the multi-variable gray optimization model as the main tools, this paper established mathematical models for each scale index, used these models to reveal the law of their development and mutually affect, and these models were used to forecast the ideal level of area power network in the future , the results provide the decision-making reference for the electrical network plan. In the end, the evaluation system of area power network building scale based on Visual Studio.NET developing environment is developed. Considering the characteristics of power system and applying the novel network technology, the system uses the C/S and B/S mixed mode based on intranet and internet. In the design of this system, UML is used to realize the requirement analysis and descript the static structure model and dynamic action model of the system. The operation of the system proves its high safety and compatibility; it is improving the informational level of power enterprise and the efficiency of power network development and planning.更多还原