【作者】 邹昆峰；

【导师】 徐晓霞；

【作者基本信息】 河南大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 现代经济和文明的发展已经进入到了以人力资本为依托的发展时期,当前各国的经济竞争,实质上已经变成了人力资本的竞争。人力资本对经济增长的强大拉动力在发达国家的经济发展中已被多次验证。本文试图建立河南人力资本对经济增长的生产函数模型,对人力资本在河南经济增长中的作用进行计量分析并得出相应的结论,然后通过对模型结果的检验、分析,提出相应的政策和建议。全文分为七个部分。1绪论本部分首先提出了论文的研究问题,随后介绍了论文的研究目的、意义、研究方法和研究思路,对人力资本的相关概念进行辨析和界定,对人力资本对经济增长的理论进行简要的回顾和评析。2河南经济和人力资本现状的比较分析本部分首先对河南的经济发展现状进行简要的分析,然后对河南人力资本现状进行纵向和横向的比较分析。在纵向比较方面,依据“四普”、“五普”资料对河南人力资本的发展情况进行了比较分析。在横向比较方面,通过人力资本存量、人力资本质量、人力资本投入和人力资本的积累能力四个方面对河南、安徽、江西、山西、湖北、湖南中部六省的人力资本发展状况进行了比较分析,并得出相应的结论。3河南人力资本与经济增长模型投入要素的计量本部分主要是通过计量的手段,对河南人力资本与经济增长模型中的投入要素,即人力资本和物质资本进行计量分析。在人力资本的计量方面,我们采用受教育年限法可以得到河南1983-2003年间历年的人力资本存量和平均受教育年限等数据资料,在物质资本的计量方面,主要是采用永续存盘法对1983-2003年间的河南物质资本存量进行计量分析。4河南人力资本与经济增长模型的构建在本部分,首先介绍了模型所需数据的来源,然后以柯布—道格拉斯函数为基础,构建了河南人力资本对经济增长的生产函数模型,鉴于人力资本的特殊性,我们通过有效劳动模型和人力资本外部性模型对河南人力资本对经济的直接贡献和间接贡献进行系统、全面的核算,通过EVIEWS3.1对模型进行线性回归,并对回归结果进行了检验、分析。5中原城市群人力资本与经济增长的实证分析在本部分,首先对中原城市群人力资本现状进行简要的介绍,对中原城市群的人力资本和物质资本进行数学计量,然后建立中原城市群的人力资本与经济增长的生产函数模型,同样运用统计软件对模型进行线性回归,并对模型结果进行检验、分析。6主要结论本部分用来总结全文的主要结论和本文可能的创新点和不足之处。在文章的主要结论方面,主要有以下五点:(1)河南人力资本在过去的20多年间虽然有了一定程度的发展,但依然呈现出人力资本质量偏低、积累水平不高、人力资本结构不合理和人力资本投资不足的特点;(2)在过去的20多年间河南的经济发展的规模呈递增趋势,但是河南的经济增长还是处在主要依靠物质资本投入的粗放型增长模式当中,人力资本在经济增长中并未起到主导性作用;(3)通过对河南人力资本有效劳动模型和人力资本的外部性模型进行回归可以得出:河南人力资本水平具有显著的外部性,具有较高的产出弹性,且河南人力资本对经济增长的直接贡献率为11.83%,间接贡献率为2.81%,总贡献率为14.64%,(4)在过去的10多年间中原城市群的经济发展的规模同样也呈区域递增趋势,并且在中原城市群的区域内部经济结构已经有所改变,人力资本对整个经济的拉动作用已经大于物质资本的拉动,人力资本对经济增长的主导作用已经开始显现。在中原城市群中,人力资本对经济增长的直接贡献率为17.82%,间接贡献率为4.26%。总贡献率为22.08%。7对策和建议本部分主要是针对河南人力资本所存在的问题,提出相应的政策和建议,以期能为政府决策提供有益的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The modern economy and the civilized development has already entered the period that based on human capital, the current countries’ economic competition in the essence already turned the human capital competition. The formidable pulls of human capital grows to the economy has been confirmed many times in the developed country economical development. This dissertation attempts to establish the yield function model of Henan human capital and the economic growth, then analyze the function of the human capital in the Henan economic growth. In the end, we will propose the corresponding policy and the suggestion to depend on the model result examination and the analysis. The dissertation consisits of seven chapters.Chapter 1 PrefaceIn this part, we propose the research question and introduce the dissertation research goal, the significance, the research technique and the research mentality, carry on the discrimination and the limits to the human capital related concept, the theory which grows to the economy carries on the brief review and the evaluation to the human capital.Chapter 2 Henan comparative analysis of the economic situation and human capitalThe first part is brief analysis of the current situation of Henan economic development, the following is human capital of Henan comparative analysis of the vertical and horizontal status. In longitudinal side, we analyze the development of Henan human capital based on the "The fourth national population statistics" and " The fifth national population statistics ".In horizontal side, we analyze the human capital development of the central region in china. In the end, we can draw the Corresponding conclusions.Chapter 3 The measurement of input elements in Henan human capital and economic growth model In this part, we do the quantitative analysis of input elements in Henan human capital and economic growth model. We can calculate the human capital with the method of educated time. We can draw the quantity of Henan human capital and average educated years from 1983 to 2003. We can draw the quantity of Henan material capital from 1983 to 2003 with the method of Sustainable Saving.Chapter 4 The model of Henan human capital and economic growthIn the first part, we introduce the data sources in the model, then We establish the model of Henan human capital and economic growth based on the Cobb-Douglas function. Because of the uniqueness of human capital, we calculate the direct contribution and indirect contribution of human capital with the comparing effective model of human capital and outside model of human capital. We can do Linear Regression of the model with EVIEWS3.1 and analyze the Regression result.Chapter 5 The empirical Analysis of human capital and economic growth in Central plains citiesIn the part, we introduce the human Capital Status in Central plains cities first. The next, we calculate the quantity of human capital and material capital in Central plains cities. The third, we establish the model of human capital and economic growth in Central plains cities. Finally, we do Linear Regression of the model with EVIEWS3.1 and analyze the Regression result.Chapter 6 Main conclusionThis part is used for summarizing the main conclusion of full text as well as the possible innovation and deficiency of this article. There are five main aspects in the conclusion of this dissertation.(1) During the past 20 years, although the human capital of Henan has certain degree development, it still presents the characteristics which the human capital quality is somewhat low, the accumulation level is not high, the human capital structure is unreasonable and the human capital investment is insufficient;(2)During the past 20 years , Henan’s economical development scale has assumed the increasing tendency, but Henan’s economy growth still occupied in the extension growth pattern which is depend on material capital investment mainly, the human capital didn’t play the leading roles in the economy growth; (3)By regressing Henan human capital effective work model and human capital exterior model, We can obtain that The Henan human capital level has the remarkable exterior nature and high delivers the elasticity as well, The direct technical progress factor of Henan human capital to the economy growth is 11.83%,and indirect technical progress factor is 2.81%,and total technical progress factor is 14.64%; (4) During the past 10 years the economical development scale of the Central plains cities has also occupied region increasing tendency, and its region internal economy structure has had some change, The drawing function to the entire economy of human capital has already been bigger than that of the material capital, The leading role to the economy growth of human capita has already started to appear. The direct technical progress factor of the Central plains cities human capital to the economy growth is 17.82%,indirect technical progress factor is 4.26%, and total technical progress factor is 22.08%.Chapter 7 policies and suggestionsIn the part, we provide corresponding policies and suggestions to the problems of Henan human capital. We hope that these recommendations will provide a useful reference for the government in making decisions.更多还原