【作者】 楚文海；

【导师】 鄢贵权； 杨先寿；

【作者基本信息】 贵州大学 ， 环境工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 贵州省是我国喀斯特地貌最发育、分布面积最广泛的省份。该区“喀斯特型”地表干旱严重，“工程性”缺水突出，成为治理石漠化、解决三农问题和实现可持续发展的主要瓶颈，加之该区生态环境极其脆弱，水资源与生态环境之间相互约束，产生恶性循环，因而协调好水资源开发利用与生态环境保护、社会经济发展的关系是实现贵州喀斯特山区生态环境的改善与全方位脱贫以及可持续发展的有效措施之一，那么在生态环境脆弱性基础上，建立一套适合贵州典型喀斯特区域的水资源可持续利用评价指标体系，并且通过评价以促进该区水资源的可持续利用就成了亟待解决的问题。本文以喀斯特地区水资源复合系统为研究对象，应用系统工程原理和可持续发展的思想，结合生态水文学原理，探讨典型喀斯特流域水资源可持续利用评价。因子及权重，建立一套“喀斯特型”的水资源可持续利用评价体系，并进行实例分析，做了如下具体工作：(1)首先对水资源系统进行了论述，认为水资源系统是复杂的复合系统，并且将水资源-生态环境-社会经济复合系统作为研究对象。回顾了水资源评价的发展历史，综述了国内外水资源评价方法、体系和指标的建立等，总结出以往水资源可持续利用评价的七点不足之处，其中对“典型喀斯特流域”的水资源可持续利用评价研究少有问津，是本文的创新之一。(2)对喀斯特地区水资源进行了探讨，具有许多不同于其它地区的特殊性质。并且在前人已有相关工作的基础上，对贵州喀斯特地区生态环境脆弱性现状、机制、态势进行深入分析，探讨水资源开发利用与生态环境之间的耦合关系，提出水资源可持续利用是促进水资源开发与生态环境协调发展的有效方法。(3)阐述了水资源可持续利用内涵，指出水资源利用不仅不能超过水资源再生极限，而且还要保持生态环境系统稳定不受破坏，为水资源可持利用评价奠定了理论基础。并且根据水资源可持续利用的量度需求，将水资源可持续利用指标体系分成3个层次，分别为目标层、准则层和指标层。(4)确定了评价指标体系建立原则，采用频率统计法、理论分析法和专家咨询法设置、筛选指标，以满足上述指标选取原则；综合分析了指标权重确定的方法，采用改进层次分析法，较好的体现了指标的重要性；综述了各种评价模型的优缺点，采用模糊综合评判是水资源评价的客观要求；划定了评价指标等级，同时将各指标的可持续发展能力分为：很差、较差、一般、较好和很好五个等级，便于决策者宏观把握；并且采用相对隶属度公式确定评价矩阵，在减少主观性偏差上有了很大进步。(5)利用可视化编程语言Visual Basic6．0对水资源可持续利用模糊评判进行了程序设计，实现了数据文件的建立和编辑，大大提高了评价效率。(6)在对普定后寨流域进行实例评价时，将流域上游、中游和下游分别进行评价，并将准则层中水资源子系统、生态环境子系统和社会经济子系统分别进行对比分析，最终得出水资源可持续利用水平为：下游＞中游＞上游。通过评价发现，生态环境脆弱性是上游水资源可持续利用水平相对较差的重要原因。(7)最后，根据评价结果，结合当地实际，提出了脆弱生态约束下喀斯特水资源可持续利用存在问题、模式及对策，为喀斯特地区水资源合理开发利用提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Eco-environmental fragility and water shortage in karst area restrict the development of society and economy. So we must lucubrate the sustainable utilization of water resources under fragile ecology restriction. Evaluation of sustainable utilization of water resources in typical karst valley is one of the important measures on ensuring sustainable development in karst area. The paper applies principle of systems engineering and thought of sustainable development, integrates principle eco-hydrology, discusses indexes and weightings of water resources sustainable utilization evaluation, and establishes a karstical evaluation system of water sustainable utilization. There are some important conclusions as follows:Firstly, discussed water resources system, retrospected the history of water resources evaluation, sumed up seven shortages about evaluation of water resources sustainable utilization, and the evaluation of water resources sustainable utilization in karst area is one innovation in this paper.Secondly, summarized water resources in karst area further. Actuality, mechanism and characters of eco-environmental fragility in Guizhou karst area were analyzed deeply according to achievement of predecessor, discussed the coupling relationship between water resources utilization and eco-environment, and brought forward that water resource sustainable utilization is an effective measure of harmonizing water resources and eco-environment.Thirdly, probed into connotation of water resources sustainable utilization, established the principle of erecting evaluation system, analyzed the methods of water resources evaluation, and erected evaluation system according to karst particularity, including: aim-layer、rule-layer and index-layer.Fourthly, Indexes were filtrated by frequency statistics method、theory analysis method and expert consultation method. Weighting was evaluated by Improved Analysis Hierarchy Process. Evaluation index grade was compartmentalized and sustainable development ability was classified to five grades: very bad、bad、common、good and very good. Established the evaluation matrix according to relative membership grade and work out result by fuzzy synthetic judgment.Fifthly, designed the fuzzy synthetic judgment process using Visual Basic6.0, achieved "new" program and "edit" program, and advanced the efficiency of evaluation.Sixthly, put up the evaluation of water resources sustainable utilization in guizhou puding houzhai valley including: higher reaches、middle reaches and lower reaches.Seventhly, put forward issue、model and countermeasure of water resources sustainable utilization in typical karst valley under fragile ecology restriction, offered basis for exploiting water resources in reason, and facilitated regional sustainable development.更多还原