【作者】 杨娟；

【导师】 徐刚；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 自然地理学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 海岸带是水圈、岩石圈、生物圈和大气圈相互作用的交集地带，是大陆与海洋的接触地带，各种地理过程频繁活跃。在自然与人为因素的影响下，灾害类型多，是陆地与海洋各种自然灾害叠合发展的区域。泉州市地处亚欧板块与太平洋板块交界地带，海陆灾害频发，潜在威胁巨大，严重影响和制约了泉州市经济的发展。本文依据系统学和灾害学理论，采用从定性到定量的综合集成方法和GIS方法，对泉州市海岸带灾害系统的组成、灾害系统形成的动力机制、海岸带灾害危险度和易损度等进行系统研究，采用地貌类型和灾害类型组合的原则进行综合区划，将泉州分为四个自然灾害区，并提出构建防灾减灾的有效监测系统及预警系统。全文分成以下五个部分进行论述：第一部分阐述了本文选题的背景和意义、国内外研究现状、研究思路及方法。第二部分为研究区的自然环境和社会经济概况，包括地质、地貌、气候、水文、土壤、植被等自然环境；水、土地、矿产、海洋生物等自然资源；人口、经济、交通通讯、旅游和人类活动等因素。第三部分论述的是泉州海岸带灾害系统。1．泉州海岸带灾害系统构成的三个子系统：孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体。本文主要是从气象灾害(台风、暴雨、洪涝、干旱等)、海洋灾害(风暴潮、赤潮、海平面上升等)和地质灾害(地震、崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等)三个方面进行阐述，最终形成了泉州海岸带灾害系统理论框架图。2．本文分析了泉州海岸带的海洋灾害、气象灾害、地质灾害等自然灾害的时空分布规律，以功率谱方法分析各灾害时间序列的波动规律，以集中度集中期方法分析各灾害年内分布规律；同时结合各灾害实际情况分析其空间分布规律，并利用Arcgis的相关功能生成相应的图件。结果表明：(1)台风具有2.5a、高温具有2.8 a、寒害具有4.67 a、暴雨、干旱以及气象总灾具有3.5 a、风暴潮和地质灾害具有14 a的变化周期。(2)除干旱外的其它灾害均具有较高的集中度，且台风、风暴潮、暴雨、高温主要集中在7—8月，寒害主要集中在3—4月。(3)影响泉州的台风路径主要包括五大类(42个亚类)；风暴潮增水受台风路径和海岸地形等地理因素的影响而不同；各气象灾害则体现为集中度、集中期和年均灾害持续天数的空间变化规律。(4)地质灾害主要是以年均1500mm等降雨量线为界，以西以北分布较以东以南为多等规律。3．泉州海岸带灾害系统是一个复杂的动态巨系统，各种灾害表现出不均匀性、多样性、差异性、随机性、突变性、迟缓性、重现性以及无序性等复杂性的特点。本文主要从定性上，以系统论为指导，探讨其存在和演化上的复杂性，以及系统内部各子系统间及其与环境的非线性相互作用。4．泉州海岸带灾害易损度和危险度分析与区划。(1)本文以泉州海岸带作为研究对象，选取10个因子组成自然灾害和社会经济两个子系统，建立二级模糊综合评判模型对泉州海岸带自然灾害易损性进行综合评判，运用Arcgis软件生成泉州市海岸带自然灾害易损性等级分布图，并且结合区域实际情况对综合评判的结果进行分析。结果表明：泉州市自然灾害的易损性总体偏高，海岸带易损性等级高于全市平均水平；海岸带内易损性等级总体上随着距海里程的增加而降低，但在内部还呈现中部地区较其他区域易损性等级偏低的情况。(2)本文在对致灾因子的危险性识别之后，采用灾害发生频次和灾害持续大数来表征事件可能发生的概率，采用致灾因子多度来表征可能灾情，将危险性作为致灾因子的评价因素，以危险度作为危险性的衡量标准，得到自然致灾因子危险度值后，采用对称不等分间隔的五级分割法划分自然灾害风险度等级，得到自然灾害危险度等级值，同时生成泉州自然灾害致灾因子危险度分布区。(3)本文按照“自下而上”的区划方法，结合Arcgis软件等对泉州海岸带灾害进行综合区划，最终将泉州分为四个自然灾害区，依据地貌类型和灾害类型组合的原则，将四个灾害区依次命名为北部中山丘陵地质灾害、暴雨灾害区；西部中低山丘陵高温、暴雨、地质灾害区；中部低山丘陵暴雨、高温、海洋灾害区；东部滨海平原、晋江中下游海洋灾害、旱涝灾害区。第四部分构建泉州海岸带灾害的防灾减灾系统，实现泉州海岸带的可持续发展。第五部分为结语与思考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The coastal zone is the region of the hydrosphere, the lithosphere, the biosphere and the aerosphere mutually affects and occurs together, is the mainland and the sea contact region, each kind of geography process is active frequently. In the nature and under the human factor influence, types of the disaster are many, is the region that each kind of natural disaster of the land and the sea folds and develops gathers. The Quanzhou cities state the areas of the Asia- Europe tectonic plate and the Pacific Ocean tectonic plate border region, the sea land disaster frequency sends, the latent threat is huge, seriously affected and has restricted the Quanzhou economy development. This article rests on systematics and the disaster study theory, and the synthesis integration method which is from the determines to the quota and the GIS method, research the composition of Quanzhou coastal zone disaster system, the power mechanism of the disaster system forms, the dangerous and the vulnerability of coastal zone disaster and so on, then comprehensive area to delimit rely on the principle of the landform type and the disaster type combination. At last, Quanzhou is divided into four natural disasters area, and proposed the effect disaster reduction effective monitor system and the early warning system of the prevention and reduction disaster.The full text divides into following five parts to carry on the elaboration:The first part elaborates the background and significance, the present research situation of the domestic and foreign, research mentality and method.Second part researches area natural environment and social economy survey, including the natural environment of geology, landform, climate, hydrology, soil, vegetation and so on; the natural resource water, land, minerals, marine life and so on; factors of population, economy, transportation communication, traveling and human activity and so on. The third part of elaboration is the Quanzhou coastal zone disaster system.1. The three subsystems of Quanzhou coastal zone disaster system is pregnant of the disaster environment, sends the disaster factor, receives the disaster body. This article is mainly elaborated three aspects: the meteorological disaster (typhoon, rainstorm, flooding, drought and so on), the marine calamity (in storm tide, red tide, sea level promotes) and the geological disaster (earthquake, avalanche, landslide, mud-rock flow and so on), and finally formed the Quanzhou coastal zone disaster system theory frame chart.2. The article analyse oceanic disaster, meteorological disaster, geological disaster as study objects, the author gets the laws about time-space distribution of nature disaster of coastal zone in Quanzhou. Using power spectral, every disaster variation is analyzed. With the methods of degree and time of concentration, the annual-inner distribution-law is analyzed. Analysing whose space distribution-law with a view of every disaster reality, and making use of the Arcgis relevance function to generate the corresponding picture documents.The results show that:(1) In proper order, typhoon, high temperature and cold evil appear in a cycle of 2.5, 2.8, 4.67 years. The laws of 2.5+ear-periodicity can be found on downpour, drought and meteorological disaster. Storm surge and geological disaster appear in a cycle of 14years.(2) Every disaster has higher degree of concentration except drought, and we found that typhoon, storm surge, downpour and high temperature have a high frequency in June and July, cold evil often happen in March and April.(3) Typhoon tracks include five major kinds (42 subgroup); Storm surge has different character, for the influence of typhoon Ramasun track and coastal topograph on it; every meteorological disaster embodies the laws about space distribution of time (degree) of concentration and annual disaster-duration.(4) Geological disasters take 1500mm Precipitation Isoline as boundary, scattering to the north and west of it is more than being to the south and east, etc.3. Quanzhou coastal zone disaster system is a complex tendency great system, each kind of disaster displays the complex the characteristic of nonuniformity, the multiplicity, the difference, randomness, salutatory, slowness, reappears nature as well as randomness and so on. This article mainly take the system theory as the instruction and from the qualitative, discusses its complexity of existence and the evolved, and the non-linearity between the system interior various subsystems and the mutually affects with the environment.4. The analysis and comprehensive division of the vulnerability and dangerous of the coastal zone disaster of Quanzhou. (1) This article is research to the Quanzhou coastal zone, selects 10 factors compositions two subsystems of natural disaster and the social economy, establishes two levels of fuzzy syntheses judgments model to carry on the synthesis judgment to the vulnerability of the Quanzhou coastal zone natural disaster, produces the map of Quanzhou coastal zone natural disaster vulnerability rank distribution using Arcgis software, and unifies the region actual situation to analysis the result of the synthesis judgment. The result indicated that: the overall of the Quanzhou natural disaster vulnerability is high, the coastal zone vulnerability rank is higher than the whole city average level; In the coastal zone vulnerability in the rank overall reduce along with the apart from the sea course the increase, but also presents the situation that the middle area in the interior to compare other region vulnerability rank somewhat low.(2) This article recognize the risk of the disaster factor, then uses the times of the disaster happened and the number of days of the disaster continues to attribute the probability which the event possibly occurs, uses the times of sends disaster factor to attribute the possible disaster situation, takes the risky to the appraisal factor of the disaster factor, takes the dangerous to the standard of risk, after obtains the danger value of the nature of the sends disaster factor, uses five levels of divisions law of the symmetrical not division gap to divide the rank of the natural disaster risk, obtains the natural disaster danger rank value, simultaneously produces the map of the distribution area of the Quanzhou natural disaster of the dangerous of the sends disaster factor.(3) This article defers to the method of "from bottom to top" to delimit the area. unifies Arcgis software and so on to synthesis area delimits for the Quanzhou coastal zone disaster, finally basis on the landform type and the disaster type combination principle, Quanzhou is divided into four natural disasters area, named four disasters areas in turn as the north Zhongshan knoll geology disaster, the rainstorm disaster area; West center low mountain knoll high temperature, rainstorm, geological disaster area; Middle low mountain knoll rainstorm, high temperature, marine calamity area; Eastern part middle and lower reaches Binhai plain, Jinjiang marine calamity, dry waterlogged disaster area.The fourth part constructs the disaster prevention and reduction system of the Quanzhou coastal zone disaster, realizes the Quanzhou coastal zone sustainable development.Fifth part for conclusion and ponder.更多还原