【作者】 方世跃；

【导师】 王得楷；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 环境工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 滑坡预测预报是减轻滑坡灾害的最有效地方法和途径之一，也是当前滑坡研究的重点、难点课题，同时更是地质灾害防治控制和环境保护的重要手段。本文在广泛的文献调研基础上，针对目前滑坡研究存在的主要问题，系统地总结了前人在滑坡预测预报领域的研究成果，并按照系统综合的研究方法对滑坡预测预报的方方面面进行了较为系统的分析，主要回顾了滑坡预测预报的国内外研究历程和现状，对滑坡预测学、滑坡预测预报、滑坡时间预测预报、空间预测预报、灾情损失预测预报等几个关键性问题进行了界定和阐述；分析了滑坡空间预测预报相关参数，总结了滑坡空间预测预报参数选择方法和滑坡空间预测预报国内外的主要研究方法，指出了滑坡空间预测预报内容，即包括滑坡可能发生地点预测预报、斜坡稳定性评价预测预报、滑坡活动强度预测预报，其中滑坡活动强度预测预报又包括滑坡规模、滑动距离、滑移速率三方面，最后总结出了滑坡空间预测预报的技术路线框图；分析了滑坡时间预测预报参数类型、特点，再分析了滑坡时间预测预报参数的获取方法，总结出了滑坡时间预测预报参数的预处理方法：因子分析、置信度分析、可靠性检验，从而发展了滑坡时间预测预报参数的选择方法；然后总结出国内外滑坡时间预测预报的各类方法，最后提出了滑坡时间预测预报技术路线表；分析清楚了滑坡灾情损失预测预报的内容、特点、原则；再分析了灾情损失预测预报参数类型，预测预报参数选择方法；在灾情损失预测预报方法上重点分析了破坏概率计算方法、事故经济计算方法两种，最后总结出了滑坡灾情损失预测预报技术路线框图；综合利用前几部分分析研究结果，设计出了滑坡预测预报综合系统，其主要分为四个子系统：滑坡空间预测预报子系统，时间预测预报子系统，灾情损失预测预报子系统，结果显示和输出子系统；并对这四个子系统进行详细设计；对数据管理、数据预处理、空间预测预报、时间预测预报，灾情损失预测预报、图形图象显示、报表生成7大主要功能模块，进行了简单描述和设计。更多还原

【Abstract】 Landslides forecast is one of the most effective ways to alleviate the damage caused by landslides disasters. It also is the crucial and difficult topic for landslides study. At the same time, It is the important means of prevention and control of geological hazards and the environmental protection.This paper is based on the general review on the achievements in the field of landslides forecast, aimed at the main problem of study on landslides forecast, The theories to landslides forecast are summarized comprehensively and systematically.Firstly, look back the related researches about landslides forecast at home and abroad. The key concepts of landslides forecast such as landslides forecast courses、space forecast、time prediction、damage loss forecast are defined and stated.Secondly, analyze the parameters of space forecast, sum up the methods of selecting parameters and summarized the methods of researching on space forecast at home and abroad, point out and analyze the contents of space forecast, which consists of possible landslides site、slope stability assessment、activity intensity and the latter also includes landslides scale、landslides distance、landslides velocity, At last, summarize the technical steps of landslides space forecast.Thirdly, analyze the categories of time prediction parameters and how to select the landslides time prediction parameters, sum up the methods of pretreatment to these documents: factor analysis、analysis of confidence levels analysis of reliability, summarize the methods of landslides time prediction, at the end, give out the technological table of how to predict the landslides time.Fourthly, analyze the types of damage loss forecast parameters, make a special analysis on two methods of landslides damage loss forecast; give the technological table of landslides damage loss forecast.Lastly, we design the integrated system of landslides forecast, which has four parts and seven functional modules, these four parts are system of space forecast, system of time prediction, system of damage loss forecast, system of results display and output, seven modules are: data management、data pretreatment、space forecast、 time prediction、damage loss forecast、figure and graphic display、report forming, Give careful design to four parts, represent seven functional modules simply.更多还原