【作者】 何飞；

【导师】 陈苑红；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 会计学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 1.研究背景和意义许多管理者把公司快速增长作为最重要的工作目标,花费大量资源去使公司销售收入不断增长,业务领域不断拓展。他们相信增长速度越快越好,理由是随着企业的增长,企业的市价和盈利将会随之上升,也就最终能取得市场竞争优势。企业管理者满足于销售高速增长带来的银行青睐、政府关注、媒体追捧,却忽略了公司的潜在经营危机;在制定的公司发展战略中,注重销售增长数字指标,对企业成长进行有效的预测和管理却不重视。“巨人”、“三株”失败的原因之一是陷入了企业成长的陷阱,过分地扩张企业的业务,而忽视了企业的增长能力与现有资源的协调。过度增长会使一个企业的资源变得相当紧张,包括智力、物力和财力等。当企业发展一旦步入过度增长模式轨道,除非管理阶层意识到后果并采取措施加以控制,否则,企业可能导致“翻车”或“出轨”事件发生。世界上“因为增长过快而破产的公司数量与因为增长太慢而破产的公司数量几乎一样多。”过慢增长则使企业宝贵的经济资源闲置,其平均利润率低于社会资源平均利润率,他们将成为市场残酷竞争中视觉更为敏锐的收购者们的“猎物”。所以过度增长与增长不足都是对企业现有资源的不合理使用,长此以往可能导致企业的灾难后果发生。“可持续增长”思想并没有被大多数企业所接受,更未成为自觉的行动。专门针对企业可持续增长财务策略研究不多,大都不很深入。鉴于以上情况,本论文将对可持续增长财务策略进行专门研究,并通过案例对可持续增长模型来应用、数据验证。试图为企业在增长管理方面提供理论和计算及应用上的借鉴和帮助。2.论文的结构和内容本论文由六章构成:第一章:绪论。本章提出了论文的立论背景:管理者重视实际销售增长,企业的过分扩张,存在忽视“可持续增长”状况;研究意义在于为管理者提供理论和应用上的借鉴和参考作用;文献综述简要回顾国内外对可持续增长的研究现状;说明了本文的研究方法、内容及思路。第二章:企业可持续增长财务理论。从财务视角开始提出可持续增长率的概念、假设前提、原理相关知识。列示了四个常见的当前理论关于“可持续增长”的财务计算模型(希金斯、范霍恩、拉巴波特和科雷可持续增长率财务计算模型),分别对每一个财务模型的对可持续增长率的定义,假设条件,和计算公式及模型意义进行了分析。其后对四个模型从理论和计算应用方面进行了客观评价。本文选取希金斯的可持续增长率财务模型作为理论基础,并引出影响希金斯的可持续增长率财务模型的四个因素(销售净利率、资产周转率、留存收益率和权益乘数),为下一章进一步分析四个影响因素奠定了基础。第三章:可持续增长率的影响因素分析。本章详细分析了可持续增长率的四个影响因素,并分别对销售净利率、资产周转率、留存收益率和权益乘数进行详细探讨指标含义、指标计算,指标评价。总结出四个影响因素对可持续增长率的内在对应关系。本章最后分析了企业生命周期的投资期、成长期、成熟期及衰退期四个阶段中实际销售增长率与可持续增长率的一般情况,并比较在不同阶段上两者之间的差异情况。第四章:企业可持续增长财务策略。本章进一步探讨了实际销售增长率和可持续增长率的定义、两者之间保持一致的条件、两者之间数值差异的特征和关系。针对企业的实际销售增长率和可持续增长率不一致的情况,详细提出了过度增长的公司和增长不足的公司的若干财务策略,以及每种策略的使用条件、优缺点和实际可行性。对于过度增长的公司,企业可以采取:1.发行新股提供权益资金来源;2.提高负债比例提供负债资金来源,具体重点说明了向银行借款、发行债券和融资租赁三种方式;3.降低股利支付率,保留更多的净利润在企业内部;4.优化企业资产的经济资源构成,提高资产周转率,加强资产管理水平,包括优化企业资产配置和剥离非主业公司两种情况; 5.控制销售增长率,提高销售净利率,减少实际销售增长带来的资金需求量。对于增长不足的公司,企业可以采取以下方式:1.通过并购方式,寻求投资机会,以充分使用多余资金,重点说明并购和购买增长;2.股票回购,提高每股收益和增强控制权; 3.对股东发放现金股利,减少留存的过多资金;4.寻找新的对外投资项目,合理使用多余资金。企业对风险偏好程度较高时,可以选择提高负债比例等方式;对风险偏好程度较低时,可以选择发行新股、控制销售增长率等方式。第五章:可持续增长率应用及案例。本章是可持续增长率的应用和案例示范章节。在前几章的基础上,讨论了可持续增长率的应用,分别针对过度增长的公司和增长不足的公司两种情况,采用实际公司的真实财务数据计算可持续增长率和实际销售增长率,对二者差异情况进行比较分析。第六章:本章是本文的总结章节。简要回顾研究内容,并总结了研究主要结论和主要的贡献。3.论文的贡献之处论文的贡献表现在:贡献一、企业的实际销售增长率与可持续增长率很少保持一致。当企业的实际销售增长率与可持续增长率保持不一致时,可以采取财务策略来使他们保持均衡。论文中分别给出了过度增长的公司和增长不足的公司可以选择的若干策略,并分析各策略的优缺,实际可行性。企业可以根据自身对风险的偏好程度以及实际情况进行合理选择,实现企业的可持续发展。贡献二、本文进一步分析了可持续增长率,得到了一些推论。在不发行新股的情况下,希金斯可持续增长率财务模型中其中的一个财务比率发生变化,其他因素不变的情况下,得出了本年可持续增长率和本年实际增长率的关系。它们是1.在资产周转率提高(或降低),其他财务比率不变时,本年的实际增长率大于(或小于)本年可持续增长率。2.在资产负债率提高(或降低)其他财务比率不变时,本年的实际增长率大于(或小于)本年的可持续增长率。3.在销售净利率提高(或降低),其他财务比率不变时,本年实际的增长率等于本年的可持续增长率。4.在收益留存率发生变化,其他财务比率不变时,本年的实际销售增长率=本年的可持续增长率。更多还原

【Abstract】 1. The background and meaning of this researchGrowth and its management present special problems in financial planning, in part because many executives see growth as something to be maximized. They reason simply that as growth increases, the firm’s market share and profits should rise as well. From a financial perspective, however, growth is not always a blessing. Rapid growth can put considerable strain on a company’s resources, and unless management is aware of this effect and takes active steps to control it, rapid growth can lead to bankruptcy. Companies can literally grow broke. It is a sad truth that almost as many companies go bankrupt because they grew too fast as do those that grew too slowly. It is doubly sad to realize that those companies that grew too fast met the market test by providing a product people wanted and failed only because they lacked the financial acumen to manage their growth properly.At the other end of the spectrum, companies growing too slowly have a different but no less pressing set of financial concerns. As will become apparent, if these companies fail to appreciate the financial implications of slow growth, they will become potential candidates for takeover by more perceptive raiders. In either case, the financial management of growth is a topic worthy of close inspection.The idea of sustainable growth is not accepted by many enterprises’executives and has not become the conscious action by a lot of companies. The majority of specific studies on financial strategy for sustainable growth of enterprises are not systems and not very in-depth. So, the author will research on financial strategy of sustainable growth and elaborate the applications of sustainable growth model through cases. The author hopes that this essay can provide some helps for operating executives on managing growth. 2. The configuration and content of the thesisOn the whole, there parts make up of the thesis:Chapter 1: Introduction. This chapter puts the question which introduces the background and meaning, content and methods of research on financial strategies for a sustainable growth of enterprises.Chapter 2: Enterprises’sustainable growth theory in finance. This chapter introduces the conception of a company’s sustainable growth and sustainable growth rate, assumptions and principles of the sustainable growth rate from a financial perspective. Four financial models on the sustainable growth rate are discussed. It listed the definition, assumptions, calculation formula and the significance respectively. This thesis select Higgins’s model of sustainable growth as theoretical basis and list the four factors (profit margin, asset turnover, retention ratio and financial leverage) affecting the Higgins’s sustainable growth rate, and lay the foundation for further analysis of the next chapter.Chapter 3: factor analysis of sustainable growth rate. This chapter detailed four factors (profit margin, asset turnover, retention ratio and financial leverage) of the sustainable growth rate. It summarizes the correlation in sustainable growth rate and the four factors. And, analysis the situation of actual growth and sustainable growth at every stage of a predictable life cycle of enterprises in general, and compare the differences between the two.Chapter 4: financial strategies for sustainable growth of enterprise. This chapter detail financial strategies of companies which too much growth or too little growth. For longer-term sustainable growth problems, some combination of the following strategies will be necessary: sell new equity, increase financial leverage, reduce the dividend payout ration, prune away marginal activities, outsource some or all of production, increase price, or merge with a“cash cow”and so on. When a company is unable to generate sufficient growth from within, it has some options: return the money to shareholders, buy growth, stock repurchase, seek new investment projects.Chapter 5: application and cases of sustainable growth rate. This chapter is about the application of the sustainable growth equation and cases of the sustainable growth. On the basis of the application of the sustainable growth rate equation, the author analysis the company whose sustainable growth rate exceeds actual growth and the company whose actual growth exceeds sustainable growth rate. The author computes sustainable growth rate and the actual growth with real financial data and analyzes their differences.Chapter 6: summary. This chapter is a summary section of this paper. A brief review content, and summed up the main conclusions and the main contribution.更多还原