中央银行货币政策透明度研究

【作者】 季晓霞；

【导师】 许崇正；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 货币政策的功能在于通过货币政策工具的操作实现中央银行特定的货币政策目标，无论这一目标是物价稳定还是经济增长或是其他，最终的效果和货币政策实施方式密不可分。在西方许多学者的研究中，货币政策透明度被确信会减少货币当局和公众之间的信息不对称现象，从而提高货币政策的操作效果，这在实践中表现为越来越多的西方国家中央银行不断提高其政策透明度，并因此取得了令世人瞩目的货币政策调控效果。与此相比，我国货币政策的透明度仍表现出更多的模糊性，从而在一定程度上导致中央银行的政策调控效果并不明显，因此，提高货币政策透明度对改善我国人民银行的政策调控有重要意义。货币政策的“透明与模糊之争”到目前为止已经有二三十年的历史。80年代之前，各国中央银行普遍遵循政策“模糊”的态度以获取意外的政策收获。当基德兰德和普雷斯科特(Kydland & Prescott，1977)首次将“时间非一致性(Time Inconsistency)”概念引入宏观经济学之后，引发了货币政策“规则与相机抉择”之争。货币政策规则逐步进入各国货币政策实施制度中，同时货币政策透明度明显增强。本文的第三章对货币政策透明度的意义进行深入分析和讨论。着眼于说明透明度原则有效增强中央银行声誉，提高中央银行货币政策实施效果。同时，引入附加成本的预期模型对货币政策透明度原则与通货膨胀的关系进行分析，结果表明，中央银行通过提高货币政策的透明度能有效地传递信息，降低公众形成预期的信息成本，所以货币政策的透明度越大，通货膨胀越低。在实践中，我们也发现，英国、加拿大和新西兰等国家在采用通货膨胀目标制后有效抑制通货膨胀，平均的通货膨胀率降低以及通胀变化减小与透明度提高相一致。本文的第四章介绍了代表性中央银行——美国和韩国的货币政策透明度实施情况。由于两国在政策背景、金融市场的发展程度上存在差异，所以在分析时本文从不同的视角对两者进行观察。对美国采用市场分析方法观察中央银行货币政策的变动对市场波动的影响，选取有代表性的联邦基准利率为政策指标，将三个月和六个月的国库券利率的波动作为市场指标，运用动态分析方法比较1993年前后美国货币政策的效果。结果表明，1993年以后美国货币政策透明度增强后，市场能较为准确地预测到中央银行的政策意图，减少了市场波动。本文同时对韩国货币政策进行了E-G指标分析，亚洲金融危机以后韩国货币政策透明度得分明显增加，这成为韩国顺利走出亚洲金融危机的重要条件。最后，本文提出了研究货币政策透明度的最终目的——构建适合我国国情的货币政策框架。在分析我国货币政策透明度不足的同时，提出建立包含目标透明、过程透明和信息透明三个方面的货币政策透明度框架体系，并针对每个部分说明具体的操作方法和建议，以最终实现适合我国的货币政策透明度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The monetary policy function lies in through the monetary policy tools to realize Central Bank’s specific monetary policy goal, regardless of this goal is price stability or the economy grows or the other, the final effect and the monetary policy implementation way are inseparable. In the western many scholars’ research, the monetary policy transparency is believed to reduce the information asymmetry between currency authority and public, thus enhances the monetary policy the operation effect—this displays in the practice for the more and more western nation Central Bank unceasingly enhances its policy transparency, and obtained the monetary policy effect which focuses attention by the common people. But compares with our country, the monetary policy still displayed more fuzziness in many aspects, so the Central Bank’s policy regulation effect not to be certainly obvious in the certain degree , therefore, enhanced the monetary policy transparency to improve our country’s central Bank the policy regulation has the vital significance.The monetary policy "transparently or blurred" already has more than 20 years. Before 80’s, the various countries Central Bank generally follow the policy "fuzzy" to gain the accident the policy harvest. When Kydland and Prescott(1977) make concept "time non-uniformity (Time Inconsistency)" introduce to macroeconomics, it initiated the monetary policy "the rule and the camera choice" struggle. The monetary policy rule gradually enters in the various countries monetary policy implementation system, simultaneously monetary policy transparency obvious enhancement.In the third chapter of the article, it carries on the analysis and the discussion to the monetary policy transparency significance. It focuses on the explanation to transparency principle effectively enhance Central Bank’s prestige and the monetary policy implementation effect. At the same time, the article introduce attachment cost anticipated model to analysis the monetary policy transparency principle and the inflation relations, finally it indicated that the Central Bank through enhances the monetary policy’s transparency effectively transmit the information to the public, then it forms the anticipated information cost, therefore the monetary policy transparently goes past in a big way, the inflation is lower. In the practice, we also discovered that England, Canada and New Zealand uses the inflation goal system the average inflation rate reduces as well as the bloating change reduces with the transparency enhances consistently.In the fourth chapter we introduced representative Central Bank- US and South Korea’s monetary policy transparency implementation situation. Because they have many different in policy background, money market degree of development, therefore in me this article we analysis them from the different angle of view. This article uses the market analysis method to observe the change of Central Bank monetary policy in US take effect to the market fluctuation. We select the representative federation datum interest rate as policy target, uses three months and six month-long Treasury bill rates as the market target, using the dynamic analysis the US monetary policy effect among 1993. The result indicated that, after 1993, the US monetary policy transparency enhance, people can accurately forecast the central bank’s policy intention, thus reduced the market fluctuation. At the same time this article will carry on E-G target analysis to the South Korea monetary policy, after the financial crisis in Asia the South Korea monetary policy transparency has later scored points the obvious increase, this became the important condition for South Korea smoothly go out the financial crisis in Asia. Finally, this article proposed the research to monetary policy transparency’s final goal - constructs the monetary policy frame to suit our country’s condition. While analyzes our country’s monetary policy transparency insufficient, we proposed the establishment which contains the goal transparent, the process is transparent and the information transparent. In the same time we aim at each partial explanations concrete operating procedure and the suggestions to suits our country the monetary policy transparency.更多还原