【作者】 马骋；

【导师】 赵振全；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 西方人力资本理论和新经济增长理论已经证明:人力资本是西方发达国家和新兴工业化国家经济增长的主要因素,人力资本投资和积累是经济保持持续增长的重要基础。在国内的文献中,论述人力资本对经济增长贡献的文章已经很多,而考虑人力资本分布情况与经济增长关系的文章却很鲜见。基于此,本文研究人力资本分布的不平等与经济增长的关系,考察人力资本分布不平等对各地区经济增长影响的大小。文利用Panel-data(面板数据)模型对我国30个省市自治区的人力资本、物质资本与经济增长之间的关系进行了计量分析,建立了长期的计量经济模型,并且应用协整理论,建立了面板误差修正模型(PECM),详细分析出各种因素对我国东、中、西三大地区的经济增长的贡献。结果表明,人力资本要素对东、中、西部三个地区作用都非常显著,从而说明劳动力素质还不够高,提高劳动者文化水平和工作技能是当务之急。其他因素对各地区经济增长也都有较显著的解释意义,同时,它们对各地区经济增长的贡献也显著不同。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since Chinese market-oriented reform and opening up policy began 20 years ago, economic development has made remarkable achievements. According to the report from National Bureau of Statistics, from 1979 to 2002, GDP growth at the rate of 9.4% per year, more than tripled the total economy, grew by 7.5 times; the finance income grew at a high rate, 12.45% in average per year. But in the wake of rapid economic development, inequalities in socially economic life have become more obvious. The gap in China’s mainland widened gradually from the 1990s in the 20th century, in the GDP coefficient of variation per person of 31 provinces and cities from 1990’s 0.706 to 2002’s 0.7941. The widening gap in regional development has become a hot issue of public concern in our society, which has a weak capacity in the political, economic and psychological bearing.The district economy is the constitutive part of the national economy. The factors of its growth are similar to the national economy. But the economic growth is the result of interaction of internal and various factors in a complicated system. So the research of the economic growth must steer from the angle of the system. Then it can receive the effective conclusion.First this text steers the research to the economic development condition of the district economy. The viability of the economic development, which is motivated because of the dispensation reform, facilitated the district economy of our country to develop. Through more than 20 years of reform, the feature of district economy took place the very big change. The rate of economic growth sped;the economic development level raised;the resource installed the tendency reasonable, the advantage of the region developed;the result of infrastructure construction showed the effects. The economic development and the environment are improved greatly.With the increase of economy, the national power strengthened obviously, the living level of people shows the exaltation evidently, but the gap of the district economic development doesn’t receive the available settle, some aspects further incline to outstanding. Though the development gap of the district economy once appeared the downsizing of the certain extent in the beginning of 90’s, 90’s later the gap extends gradually again, and the gap extensive span exceeded the span that previous period contract. At present the economic gap of the three districts is very obvious, exceeds former whichever time.According to the previous studies on this issue, I made a quantitative study on the effects of human capital and material capital on China regional economic growth. I focus on four variables: gross domestic product(Y_it), the labor input(L_it), physical capital inputs(K_it) and human capital(H_it) and took the Cobb-Douglas form production function.Y represents the total output in the model, GNP, GDP and national income is the main indicators of total output in macroeconomics. In this paper, I choose GDP, which is adjusted by the GDP deflator （base year=2000）, as the measurement of output.K in our model is the physical capital, which is indicated by the capital stock of each region. Capital stock data are estimated by the actual fixed asset investment series of each region. Assuming a 5% rate of depreciation of fixed assets, then regional capital stock can be estimate by equation K_t = 0.95K_t-1+I_t, here I is the actual total fixed assets investment, which is adjusted by the fixed investment index（base year=2000）, similar to GDP.L represents labor input, is measured by the total number of full employment.H in the model is human capital, is measured by the total annual state funding for education. Since the absence of education fund index, we adjust the original data by the GDP deflator （base year=2000） instead, yield the actual series.In this paper, panel data model was employed to analyses the factors which affect regional economic growth in China. To achieve better results, I select 30 provinces （municipalities or autonomous regions） as data sample; sampling interval of 1996 to 2005, for a total of more than 1,200 data points. As we are focus on the effect of the sample itself, besides of the particular regional circumstances, we consider a panel data model with fixed effects is an appreciate one. So we establish the following model:Eastern region: ln（e gdp）_it = c_i +αln（e K）_it +βln（e L）_it +λln(e H_it) + e_μitCentral region: ln（m gdp）_it = c_i +αln（m K）_it +βln（m L）_it +λln(m H_it) + m_μitWestern Region: ln（w gdp）_it = c_i +αln（w K）_it +βln（w L）_it +λln(w H_it) + w_μitWe use Eviews5.0 to estimate our model, the estimated result showed that: the contribution of physical capital stock to growth in western region is larger than other regions. There is a negative elasticity of human capital in western region, and the elasticity in central region is the biggest, this meant that the contributions of human capital stock to growth in central and eastern regions are larger than the western region; this is mainly because of the low level of human capital stock in western region. By the way, the elasticity of labor input in western region is bigger than other regions.From our estimate, economic growth in western region is mainly driven by large-scale investment in fixed assets; the contribution of human capital is weak. However in the eastern and central regions, which have a higher level of human capital stock, the contribution of human capital to growth is far larger than the western region. The other hand, it shows the increasing importance of human capital input in the western region. If there are no appropriate scale of human capital matches the large-scale fixed capital, the promotion of physical capital stock to economic growth is not sustainable.The above three models reveal long run equilibrium of capital investment and economic growth in China. Further more, we use the PECM model to inspect the short run dynamic adjustment of capital input. As the variables are all I（1） processes and have co-integration relations, the stationary of variables in the PECM is meted. So we use the OLS to estimate the parameters, and investigate the short run dynamic adjustment effects generated by the long run equilibrium of capital investment and economic growth. The PECMEastern region:Δ（ln（e_gdp）（it））=c_i+αΔ(ln（e_K）_it) +βΔ(ln（e_L）_it)+λΔ(ln(e_Hit))+κ(e_ecm_t-1)+e_vitCentral region:Δ（ln（m_gdp）（it））=c_i+αΔ(ln（m_K）_it) +βΔ(ln（m_L）_it)+λΔ(ln(m_Hit))+κ(m_ecm_t-1)+m_vitWestern Region:Δ（ln（w_gdp）（it））=c_i+αΔ(ln（w_K）_it) +βΔ(ln（w_L）_it)+λΔ(ln(w_Hit))+κ(w_ecm_t-1)+w_vitHere item“ecm”is the short-term adjustment factor （error factor）. It reflects a correction of biases from the balance level generated in the previous period.The estimate result shows:1, a short run increase in physical capital input have a significant positive impact on economic growth in both regions, however, with difference among regions, the western region have a highest one.2, similar to 1, labor input increase have a significant positive impact on economic growth in both regions, and the western region was affect most significantly.3, effects of human capital investment are different between three regions, there is a positive growth effects in eastern and central regions, however a depressive effect in western region. this is consist with the reality that there is a lower level of human capital stock in western region.In all, both human capital and physical capital have significance contribution to regional economic growth, however, with different regional effects; accordingly, we give out different policy recommendations to each region. This will narrow the development gap between the eastern, central and western regions and promote the coordinated development of regional economy更多还原