【作者】 王辉；

【导师】 孙世群；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 环境科学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 从系统的角度分析，水体环境系统是一个充满不确定性因素的、变化复杂的大系统。本文针对环境系统的不确定性，采用未确知数学理论对河流水环境规划进行研究，并通过实例论证了此方法的可行性。本文以合肥南淝河为研究对象，在查阅文献、分析河流水环境系统的不确定性基础上，比较了随机方法、模糊数学方法、灰色系统理论和未确知数学理论四种处理不确定性信息方法的各自使用范围和优缺点。根据水环境功能区划，应用TOPSIS法和物元分析法对南淝河水环境质量进行了评价，并分析比较了两者的评价结果，结果表明两种评价有一定的一致性。本文通过收集南淝河污染源资料，分析了南淝河污染源状况，提出了对污染源评价方法的改进思路，采用TOPSIS法对南淝河污染源状况进行了评价。本文通过分析灰色模型和马尔可夫模型的应用范围和优缺点，将灰色模型群法和马尔可夫链结合，对南淝河水环境质量进行了预测；预测效果较好，精度在可接受范围内。通过实例探讨了它的可行性，为今后工作提供了新的思路和方法。本文根据水环境系统的不确定性，采用盲数理论对南淝河COD和氨氮的水环境容量进行了核算。通过实例研究发现，这些不确定理论在水环境评价及环境容量核算工作中具有一定的优势和使用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Analyzed from the system, the water body environment system is full of uncertainly factor and the invariable complex system. In view of the uncertainty of environment system, this paper use uncertainty theory to conduct Research to water environment plan. Through example, the method is proven feasibly.This paper takes South Fei River as the research object. By consulting the documents and analyzing the uncertainty of the rivers water environment system, this paper comprised the advantages and the suitable scope of random method, fuzzy method, grey theory and unascertained theory. According to condition of South Fei River water environmental protection; this paper applies the TOPSIS method and matter element analysis method to water quality assessment. Compared two assesses results, it is easy to find that two kind of assesses method has certain uniformity.Through the collection of material and analyzed condition of South Fei River source pollution, this paper proposes new ways to improve assesses method about source pollution, and uses TOPSIS method to assess condition about source pollution.Through anglicizing the advantage and disadvantage of grey model group and Markov model, the paper brings forward the idea of Union grey model group method and Markov model, and uses it to predict water quality of South Fei River. The simulating results are reasonable, and the predicting results are acceptable.The paper calculates South Fei River environmental capacity of COD and NH₃-N through blind number theory. Taking example, it discusses the feasibility of these methods. The results show that these researches can provide new ideas and methods for further research and work henceforth.更多还原