【作者】 汤洪忠；

【导师】 杨善林；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 人民币升值问题是当今中美关系中的一个焦点问题，也是影响国际经济政治关系的一个重大问题。美国通过经济政治手段对中国施压，要求人民币快速大幅升值，而中国政府则声称自己没有操纵人民币汇率来使本国企业获得竞争优势，双方各执一词，争论不休。与此同时，人民币的升值过程也已经开始，自2005年7月21日中国人民银行宣布实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度起到2006年底，人民币累计升值已经超过3％，今年人民币汇率仍有望大幅上升。但是，对于人民币的合理汇率水平、合理升值幅度、以及升值过程的管理等问题，目前学术界仍在争论。本文应用购买力平价理论、利率平价理论、马歇尔——勒纳条件以及弹性分析方法构建了货币渐进升值模型，并运用该模型研究了人民币升值过程。模型运用购买力评价理论计算货币的当前均衡汇率，在确定币值存在低估后，运用弹性分析法测算货币升值的经济损益。作者认为，货币升值过程的经济影响包括短期和长期两个方面，通过使短期损失(收益)最小化(最大化)，可以确定货币升值的最佳幅度；此外，作者还认为，升值的长期影响和升值过程的管理有关，具有不确定性。使用货币渐进升值模型来指导人民币升值过程，不仅能使人民币升值过程的短期损失(收益)最小化(最大化)，同时还可以消除货币升值可能对经济带来的长期负面影响，具有很大的现实意义。本文的主要研究工作如下：1．应用购买力平价理论、利率平价理论、马歇尔——勒纳条件以及弹性分析方法构建货币渐进升值模型。2．运用货币渐进升值模型研究人民币的升值过程，包括确定人民币的均衡汇率、确定人民币当前的合理升值幅度等。3．分析人民币升值的应对措施，包括使短期损失(收益)最小化(最大化)以及维持经济长期稳定发展的应对措施。4．从中美关系的角度对人民币升值问题进行了研究并对人民币的升值前景作出展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 The appreciation of Renminbi currency has been a thorny problem between China and America, and it’s also a problem that affects international political and economic relationship. The American side is now pressing the appreciation of Renminbi currency through political and economic means, but the Chinese side asserts that the price of Renminbi was not and is not being manipulated intentionally to give Chinese business unfair competitive advantage. The argument is still continuing. In the meantime, the appreciation of Renminbi currency has been on the way. From July 21, 2005, when the People’s Bank of China declared that the price of Renminbi Currency would be based on the supply and demand of money market, the value of a basket of international currency and the system of managed flotation, to the end of 2006, the price of Renminbi has rose by more than 3%.And further appreciation is still expected. But scholars are still arguing about problems as equilibrium exchange rate of Renminbi currency, the extent by which the currency should rise, and the management of the appreciation process.By Adopting PPP theory, Interest rate parity theory, Marshall—Lerner Condition and Flexibility analysis, this essay constructed Currency Gradual Appreciation Model (CGAM) and then used it as a tool to research the process of the appreciation of Renminbi currency. The model use PPP theory to decide the equilibrium exchange rate of a currency. When great undervalue of the currency is detected, Flexibility analysis would be used to analyze the short term profit and loss of the appreciation process. In the process of the research, the author divides the influence of the appreciation process into short term and long term. When the short term profit (loss) is maximized (minimized), a gradual appreciation point could be computed, which would tell us the optimal appreciation rate for the short term. Moreover, the author contends that the long term influence of the appreciation, which is more uncertain, depends on the management of the process. Using CGAM as a tool for the appreciation of the Renminbi currency will not only benefit us for the short term but also give us some meaningful advice for the long term. The major work of the essay includes:1. Constructing CGAM with PPP theory, Interest rate parity theory, Marshall --Lerner Condition and Flexibility analysis.2. Analyzing the appreciation of Renminbi currency with CGAM, which includes deciding the equilibrium exchange rate, computing the optimal appreciation rate etc.3. Proposing short term and long term counteract and policy.4. Researching the expectation of the appreciation from the standpoint of Sino-US relation.更多还原