【作者】 陈锋；

【导师】 孙天琦；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化的不断深化，作为全球化重要标志之一的国际资本流动发展迅猛，对世界经济产生着日益深远的影响。近年来，由于世界各国进一步推进货币可兑换，跨境资本流动开始日趋频繁，规模越来越大，复杂程度进一步提高。大规模的资本流动在满足投资需求的同时，也使得宏观经济和金融体系内部的脆弱性变得更为突出。国际资本的集中流入，引起一国信用扩张，给货币升值造成压力，加速经济泡沫的形成；集中流出则会造成本币贬值压力，引发债务危机、货币危机，加剧经济紧缩。近日联合国又对1997-1998年发生金融危机的四个亚洲国家发出了货币危机危险预警。对于正处于市场经济转型时期的中国来说，大规模的资本流动极易对经济产生冲击，一定条件下也有可能触发货币金融危机。因此，有必要加强对资本流动及其脆弱性的分析和研究，建立资本流动脆弱性风险预警体系，维护经济和金融安全。本文对国内外关于国际资本流动及其脆弱性研究的相关文献进行了梳理，介绍了国际资本流动及其脆弱性的概念和基本理论；运用经济学、国际金融学理论对国际资本流动的机制、特征和趋势进行了一般分析。关于中国资本流动脆弱性的具体表现和根源的论证，本文一改以往的研究套路，选取了国际收支平衡表、利用外资和外债三个资本流动脆弱性最敏感的视角来进行研究。文章在整理历年数据资料的基础上，以中国资本账户开放程度和人民币升贬值压力为前提，通过国际收支平衡表来考察中国资本管制的效力，进而资本流动的脆弱性；从利用外资和外债的角度探讨资本流动脆弱性的根源，得出以下结论：宏观经济层面上，经济发达程度相对较低；金融深化程度有限，抗风险能力较弱；开放性宏观经济体系欠完善。微观经济层面上，金融部门经营管理水平较低；投融资体制存在弊端；要素市场不完善。同时，本文对世界主要发达国家和发展中国家的资本流动监管进行了比较和分析，在此基础上，借鉴国际上先进的资本流动管理经验，结合外汇管理工作实践，有针对性地提出了构建科学有效的资本流动脆弱性分析和预警体系；转变外汇管理方式；继续完善人民币汇率形成机制，推动利率市场化改革；适度外汇储备；稳步推进资本项目可兑换和加强国际合作等资本流动脆弱性风险防范措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the unceasing deepening of the economy globalization, as the important symbol of globalization, international capital flow is developing swiftly and violently, and is influencing the world economy more and more deeply. Because the various countries further the process of the currency convertibility, interstate capital flow becomes more frequently. The scale of it is bigger and bigger, and the complex degree further enhanced. While large-scale capital flow meets the investment need, it also causes the interior vulnerability of macroscopic economic and the financial system becomes prominently. The international capital centralized inflow causes a country credit to expand, brings pressure to currency appreciation, and accelerates the formation of economical foam. The centralized outflow will create the domestic currency to depreciate, lead to the initiation of debt and currency crisis, and intensify the economy depression. Recently, the United Nations sent out the currency crisis warning to four Asian countries, which had suffered the financial crisis in 1997-1998. To China, which is in the market economy transition period, large-scale capital flow extremely easily has the impact on economy. Under certain conditions it also has the possibility to trigger currency finance crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the analysis and the research on capital flow and its vulnerability, establish the early warning system of capital flow vulnerability, and defend the economy and finance security.This article has combed the related domestic and foreign literature on international capital flow and its vulnerability research, and introduced the concept and elementary theories of international capital flow and its vulnerability; By the economic and international finance theory, it analyzed the characteristic and tendency of international capital flow mechanism. About the study on concrete manifestation and root proof of capital flow vulnerability in China, this article changes the former methodology research, and selects three sensitive angle to study capital flow vulnerability: international balance of payment, FDI and external debt. On the basis of previous year’s data, the opening degree of China capital account and the pressure of RMB appreciation or depreciation, it inspects China capital control efficiency then capital flow vulnerability through the international balance of payment. Through the angle of FDI and external debt it discussed the root of capital flow vulnerability. The conclusion is as follows: From the macroscopic economic view, China’s economical development degree is relatively low. Its financial deepening degree is limited, and the anti- risk ability is weak. The open macroeconomic system needs consummation. From microscopic economic view, the management of its financial department is poor. The investing and financing system needs to be modified and the factor market is imperfect. At the same time, this article has compared and analyzed the supervising and managing of capital flow in the main developed countries with in developing countries. On this bases, it referred the advanced international capital flow management experience and combined the foreign exchange management working practice. Then it proposed capital flow vulnerability risk precaution measures as follows: Construction of scientific and effective capital flow vulnerability analysis and the early warning system; Transforming of the method of foreign exchange management; Continuing to consummate the formulation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate; Impelling the interest rate market reform; Moderating foreign exchange reserves; Steadily advancing the convertibility of the RMB and strengthening the international cooperation.更多还原