【作者】 张影强；

【导师】 袁伦渠；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 国内外对农村剩余劳动力转移的研究颇丰：国内的研究大多数沿用国外较为成熟的理论来分析中国实际情况，可是国外研究和中国较大不同点一是中国的户籍制度，二是国外以个人利益决策最大化为前提假设，并未考虑到中国农户“家”在农户心目中的地位以及在中国社会经济生活中发挥的重要作用，所以对现实问题的解释并不深入。本文尝试从家庭集体决策出发，以家庭收益最大化为逻辑的起点，借用农业经济学、家庭经济学，来探讨中国农户时间配置模型。在问题提出和文献综述后，本文首先介绍了日本农业经济学家纳卡吉马的农户模型，并对四种模型作了简要评述。然后结合中国农户所具有的特点，重构中国农户时间配置模型，把农村劳动力市场、城市劳动力市场、消费品市场、生产资料市场和金融市场等统一于模型之内。随后重点解释了农村剩余劳动力转移的本质是农户家庭劳动力时间配置不断向非农业活动倾斜的过程。并探讨了农村剩余劳动力的估算应该以时间(月)为单位和以农村劳动生产率为基准，而现有的估算却忽略了微观层面的考虑，导致剩余数量的低估，并用调查数据予以佐证。在探讨完这一基础性问题后，继续用农户时间配置模型解释了城市劳动力工资的变化给农户时间配置的影响，最后对中国计划生育和‘新农村’建设对未来农村和城市使用农村劳动力的分配问题做了深入研究。通过研究发现：农村劳动力对外界市场的变化存在着较大的“替代效应”和劳动力分配的“时滞效应”。本文建议在解决农村剩余劳动力转移时，应该大力发展“既不离土，亦不离乡”新型小时工制度，才能真正解决农村存在的大量隐性失业问题。时下较为迫切的应该是及早引导低端产业转移，以应对未来中国的农村剩余劳动力减少的趋势，从而不至于出现“民工荒”而无以应对。更多还原

【Abstract】 There has much appreciable research about the migration of rural labor at home and abroad. Most of the domestic researchers use mature theory to analyze the actual situation in China, but they ignore that the biggest difference between abroad and home is that China’s household registration system. And all decision-making is based on the hypothesis of personal income to maximize, but it does not take into account that the rural "home" in the eyes of the people and the socio-economic life in China have played an important role. So now the research is not in depth. This paper attempts to explore Chinese household time allocation model in the view of the collective decision-making and the hypothesis of the family income maximization using the Agriculture economics and Household economics.After introducing this paper background and literature review. Firstly we introduce the Japanese agricultural economist Nakajima’s four household models and makes a brief review. Then considering of the characteristics of Chinese households, the author remodel the time allocation model. The model contains the rural labor market, the urban labor market, the consumer market, the production and financial markets. This paper also explains the essence of the migration of the rural surplus labor. Actually it’s a processing of the household constantly working time allocation to the non-agricultural activities. The author think the estimation of the rural surplus labor should be on the base of the time (months) and Productivity. And the existing estimate method has ignored the microeconomic level considerations and underestimated. There also has date to support the result. After exploring the fundamental issues, this paper continues to use time allocation model to explain how the wages of the urban work force to change the allocation of time. Then the Chinese family Planning and New rural construction between rural and urban areas of the rural labor force distribution do an in-depth study.Through the research we found that there is a greater the "substitution effect" and the allocation of labor, "Delay Effect." in the rural labor market facing the other market changing. This paper proposes to solve the migration of rural labor, we should vigorously develop "neither farming, not leaving". A new hourly system will be the only real solution to the large number of rural existence of hidden unemployment. But nowadays more urgent should guide Low-end industrial upgrading, to respond to China’s future surplus rural labor to reduce the trend, so as not to a "shortage of migrant labors" without a response.更多还原