【作者】 李强；

【导师】 谭忠富；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 企业管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着电力市场管制的逐步解除，供电企业面临的风险越来越多，对于风险需要进行量化分析，以便在此基础上进行有效的风险控制，这方面的研究工作在我国刚刚开始。本文针对供电可靠性给供电企业带来的风险进行分析，论述了我国供电企业供电可靠性现状及供电可靠性的评估方法，重点阐述了供电可靠性风险的主要因素——用户停电损失的评估理论，建立了用户停电损失评估模型。在此基础上建立了供电可靠性风险的风险控制模型，并对模型的有效性和可操作性进行了验证；同时提出了基于可靠性电价的风险控制模型，论述了如何利用可靠性电价控制供电可靠性风险，并且给出了可靠性电价的确定模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the electricity market deregulated step by step, the risk that the power supply enterprise faces is getting more and more. The risk needs to carry on quantitative analysis, in order to carry on the valid risk control, the research work in this field has just begun in our country. The paper analyses the risk that power supply reliability brings to power supply enterprise, describes the power supply reliability status of power supply enterprise and the evaluation method of power supply reliability, explains the concept of customer outage costs—the main factor of the power supply reliability risk. The paper sets up the risk control model of the power supply reliability risk, and proves to validity and effectiveness of the model. It proposes the control strategy of risk based on reliability power price at the same time, and expounds the fact how to utilize the reliability power price to control the power supply reliability risk, and provides the model of the reliability power price.更多还原