【作者】 余琪君；

【导师】 黄济生；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国引入外资规模的不断加大,外商直接投资对我国经济发展的影响越来越不容忽视。针对外商直接投资对我国国内投资的效应这一问题,本文展开了研究。本文主要从行业角度出发,就外商直接投资对我国国内投资的挤出效应及其相应对策进行分析研究。之所以选择从行业角度展开分析,是因为各行业在国民经济中的地位不同、基础不同,吸收外商直接投资的绝对量不同,各行业受其影响也不同。本文引入相关理论,借助有关模型,采集历年行业投资数据,就外商直接投资对国内投资的影响作了一定的分析研究,观察我国的外商直接投资对国内投资是否存在挤出效应。本文的基本思路是:引入相关理论,从经济的总体和行业的角度对我国外商直接投资的概况、特点和影响加以阐述;然后,以我国整体经济数据以及外商直接投资的重点行业——制造业以及对外开放较早、竞争较为充分的批发零售行业的数据进行实证研究;在实证分析的基础上,对计量结果进行解释和分析,进而阐述本文研究的主要结论和相应对策。第一章阐述了选题意义与研究目标、研究方法和主要特色,并从理论根源上论述外商直接投资与国内投资变动的相关性和国内外研究学者对挤出效应的观点和解释。同时,对外商直接投资的相关概念进行了界定。第二章首先对外商直接投资在我国的投资历程作了梳理,并就其对我国经济几个方面的影响进行了阐述,从近年来我国经济运行实际情况和外商直接投资数据的变化,引出外商直接投资可能对内资存在挤出效应的问题。然后根据采集到的相关数据,借助已有的绝对挤入(挤出)模型,尝试运用实证检验的方法进行研究。由此得到的结论是:在1983年至2006年间,从整体上看,外商直接投资对我国国内投资在10%的显著性下呈现挤出效应。而后,本章对结论进行了讨论和解释。第三章选取了外商直接投资的重点行业——制造业为研究对象,从行业角度研究外商直接投资对内资的挤出效应。根据20世纪90年代以来我国制造业投资的变化情况,运用绝对挤入(挤出)模型对相关投资数据进行分析。经过检验和观察发现:制造业的外商直接投资在1 997年至2006年间对内资的影响呈现中性。然后通过具体子行业中的典型案例,从行业内部的角度对结论进行了解释和分析。第四章就对外开放较早、竞争较为充分、与日常生活关联度较大的批发零售行业进行研究。从分析外商直接投资在我国批发零售业的投资历程与现状入手,运用同样模型,将采集的相关数据进行实证分析,得到的结论是:批发零售业的外商直接投资对国内投资的挤出或挤入效应不显著。然后以实例就行业内部可能存在的挤出效应,从投资方式、主要业态和区域分布等角度对该结论进行分析。第五章在前文所述的关于外商直接投资对我国内资挤出效应研究的基础上,引发对于中国利用外商直接投资的反思。本章在论述了我国利用外资方面存在的一些主要问题之后,从三个层面探讨了如何积极、合理、有效地利用外资。第一,微观层面:鼓励企业的自主创新。通过技术创新和生产效率的提高,增强企业的内部实力和竞争力,从本质上防止外资利用技术水平差异对我国的企业形成挤出压力;第二,中观层面:用经济手段引导外商直接投资。针对不同行业的实际情况和跨国公司投资的不同形式,我们应对外商直接投资进行筛选,用经济手段防止由独资化和并购导致的行业垄断。在不同的行业内实行对外商直接投资适当的限制,并根据不同行业制定具体政策,引导外商直接投资的产业投向;第三,宏观层面:在继续进入外商直接投资的同时,限制给予外商直接投资超国民待遇。加强和完善有关外资管理的法规,改变以往对外商直接投资实施全面优惠的政策,统一内外资竞争的起点。纵观全文,可以概括为两方面:第一,研究和分析表明外商直接投资对我国的国内投资在总体上存在一定的挤出效应,在某些行业对国内投资的影响呈现中性。第二,为了防范外商直接投资挤出效应在某些行业的发生和扩大,针对引资中存在的主要问题,提出对策,在继续引进外商直接投资时,切实做好产业引导,推动我国国民经济安全、健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the growth of Foreign Direct Investment in China, the impact of FDI on out national economy has been on the rise. This paper focuses on the crowding-out effect of FDI on domestic investment.This paper addresses the crowding-out effect of FDI on domestic investment in China. The sector difference in policy, strength and status in national economy makes it wise to analyze the effect of FDI in the view of sectors respectively. This paper tries to make use of the related theory and model, collects investment-related data of different sectors to analyze the effect of FDI on domestic investment.The track of thought of the paper is as follows: The theoretical analysis of general introduction of FDI on both nation and sector level goes first; the empirical analysis follows to focus on manufacturing sector and retailing sector; on the basis of theoretical and empirical study, an explanation of the result and conclusion are given.Chapter I revisits and lays out the meaning and goal of the topic, the means of study and main characters. It presents the related theory and idea of the issue chronologically and gives the definition of related keywords.Chapter II reviews the history of FDI in China and states the general impact of FDI on China’s economy. Upon the status quo of the national economy and investment statistics, the chapter analyzes the question of whether FDI would crowd out domestic investment by using empirical model. The result of the study is that during the period of 1983 and 2006, the whole crowding-out effect of FDI in domestic investment exists under the obviousness of 10%. An explanation is given for this empirical result.Chapter III selects the manufacturing sector in China as the sample of analysis. Based on the statistics of the sector since late 90s in 20^th century, the empirical study shows that the crowding-out or crowding-in effect of FDI on domestic investment is close to nil. However, the evidence of loss of market share and brands might be supportive in stating the existence of CO in some areas and fields. The unobvious result might be caused by the balance of conflict effect in different sub-sectors.Chapter IV gives an empirical study on the retailing sector due to its high level of competition and deep involvement of FDI. It starts with the investment history and status quo and follows up by analyzing the crowding-out effect of FDI on domestic investment in the retailing sector. Statistics show that the effect is somewhere in the middle. The result is followed by an explanation.The main problems and corresponding strategies are given in Chapter V that actions could be taken to make better use of FDI. It states the specific strategies in three different levels: to encourage domestic enterprises to make technical innovations and strive to be independent from FDI in technical sense; to make use of economic method to prevent sector monopoly and to lead FDI into different sectors; to adjust FDI policy in different sector and to create a fair environment for both FDI and domestic investment while being open for more FDI.To be brief, the conclusion can be drawn on base of the empirical results that there is crowding-out effect of FDI on domestic investment on the whole and the effect on some sectors is moderate. To prevent the crowding-out effect from further growing, strategies should be taken to lead FDI to improve the sector structure so as to ensure the sound development of national economy.更多还原