【作者】 王娟；

【导师】 武刚；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本研究通过对目前国内外森林火险预报技术水平和发展趋势的总结,结合“北京市西山试验林场林火管理信息系统研建”项目的开发,在调查和分析林场的气象、森林资源、人为活动和林火档案等数据基础上,针对位于市区近郊的林场人为活动频繁的特点,科学地选取火险预报因子,建立了由气象、可燃物、地形、人为活动等因子构成的林火预报评价指标体系。运用综合指标打分法,建立了面向林场的火险等级预报模型。依据专家调研和林场多年的防火日志(包括气象、火情等数据),及植被分布和人为活动发生情况数据,通过用Excel VBA程序搭建的模型模拟平台,进行反复回代试验,确定了火险等级预报模型的各类参数。在上述模型的基础上,本文运用GIS组件技术,分析、设计和实现了林场火险预报系统。它包括:气象数据、资源数据、人为活动数据、模型参数等维护和管理;火险预报计算;火险预报输出等模块。为此,通过收集、整理、输入各类数据,完成了林场森林资源、人为活动等空间数据库建设。系统不仅提供了每日各小班火险综合预报等级及其分布图,也提供了人为活动、可燃物等专题图,为林场识别重点防火区域,为林场有关部门制定有针对性的防范措施提供科学的依据。系统功能实用,界面友好,操作简便,利于林火管理基层人员的使用和推广。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study was carried out on the current domestic and international forest fire forecasting technology and the summary of development trends, combines with the project development of "Beijing XiShan forest farm fire management information system", bases on the investigation and analysis of meteorological forestry, forest resources, and human activities such as forest fires archive data, aims at the frequent human activities of the outskirts of urban forestry, selects fire predictors scientifically, builts a forest fire forecasting evaluation index system constitutes by the weather, combustible resources, terrain, and other human activities such kind of factors. The paper uses integrated indicators scoring for the establishment of forest fire risk prediction model. According to experts research, log fire (including meteorological, fires and other data), and the distribution of vegetation and human activities data, by using Excel VBA program, the author builts a model simulation platform, after many tests, confirms the various parameters of the fire danger rating prediction model.On the basis of the above model, the paper uses GIS technology components to analysis, design and implementation of forest fire forecast system. It includes: meteorological data and data resources, human activities, such as the model parameters maintenance and management; fire forecasting calculation; fire forecasting output modules. To the end, through the collection, collation, the importation of all types of data, the author updates the forest resources, human activities such as the building of spatial database. System will not only provides daily forest fire forecast and its thematicmap, but also provides human activities, combustible materials thematic maps to identify key forest fire region, forestry departments to formulate specific prevention measures on provided scientific basis. The system function is practical, interface is friendly and easy to operate, and fire management to junior officers to use and promotion.更多还原