【作者】 李蓓；

【导师】 姚莉；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 外汇储备是一个综合性的因变量,外汇储备过多或过少都将对一国经济造成重大影响。近几年来,我国外汇储备大幅增长,截至2007年3月底,我国外汇储备总额已经达到12020.31亿美元。当外汇储备在合理范围增长时,对经济发展有很大的推动作用。外汇储备增加有利于增强国际清偿力,维护国家和企业的对外信用水平;规模巨大的外汇储备是抵御国际金融风险的坚实物质基础,有利于增强国内外对我国经济和人民币的信心,提升了我国的国家经济地位和金融资信等级。从另一方面,外汇储备的快速增长对我国的经济发展也带来了一些负面影响,在我国目前的外汇管理体制下,外汇占款已成为我国中央银行投放基础货币的主要渠道,加剧了本就存在的流动性过剩的局面,使得央行的货币政策的作用效果大大减低,也削弱了货币政策的独立性。本文从我国外汇储备的演进过程入手,介绍了外汇储备的形成原因,并对国内外有关外汇储备的相关研究进行了综述。在此基础上,从外汇储备对央行货币政策的影响的角度,分析我国外汇储备对货币政策的作用机理和将对货币政策产生何种制约。文章的核心在于运用计量的分析方法对外汇储备与各相关因素进行了实证分析,应用Eviews4.0统计软件对外汇储备与货币政策变量进行了数量关系分析,对外汇储备快速增长给货币政策带来的影响进行了较为深入地探讨,最后基于以上分析,提出了相应的建议和措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The foreign exchange reserve is a comprehensive variable, which excessively has the significant influence to a country economy more or less. In the last few years, our country foreign exchange reserve is increasing so much. Up to March of 2007, the total amount of country foreign exchange reserve has already amounted to 12,020.31 hundred million US dollars. When the foreign exchange reserve grows in the reasonable scope, it has the very great function to the economic development. The foreign exchange reserve has its advantageous, which could enhance the capability of international payment, maintain national and enterprises’foreign credit level; The enough foreign exchange reserve could control international finance risk, which could strengthens the confidence to our country economy and the Renminbi . That also could enhance our country economy status and the finance credit rating.On the other hand, the fast growth of foreign exchange reserve also has brought some negative influences to our country’s economic development. With present exchange control system , the RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves are the main channel which is our country Central Bank putting the base currency into economy. The fluid surplus current situation will determine the amount of the base currency putted into entire economy and weak the independence monetary policy.At the beginning, this article talks about evolution process of our country foreign exchange reserve, analyses the reason of the increasing of foreign exchange reserve, and carries on the summary of the foreign exchange reserve research. After that, article introduces the influence of the foreign exchange reserve to the monetary policy. It analyses our country’s foreign exchange reserve restriction and mechanism to the monetary policy. The main target of the article is to carry on the real diagnosis to the foreign exchange reserve with each correlation factor by using the measurement analysis method. Eviews4.0 statistics software is used to analyze the foreign exchange reserve and the monetary policy. The article also discusses thoroughly the reason why the foreign exchange reserve grows so fast. Finally, based on the conclusion, it put forward the corresponding proposal and the measurement tochina’s foreign exchange reserve.更多还原