【作者】 李翼；

【导师】 祝圣训；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 企业管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 截至2006年底,中国的外汇储备已逾万亿美元,超过日本成为世界第一大外汇储备国。如何管理经营好如此巨大的外汇储备,最大化的将国家财富还富于民已经成为摆在我国政府面前亟待解决的问题。另一方面,自2005年7月21日人民币汇率改革至2006年底,人民币汇率对美元已经累计升值4.7%。汇率的频繁波动给我国企业的生产经营活动以及财务收支状况造成了很大的影响。在当前企业竞争已进入白热化的时代,汇率风险规避与外汇资金运作已经成为企业在基础业务领域竞争以外的第二条生命线。然而目前我国大部分企业还仅停留在依靠产品贸易获取企业利润上,尚无意识到外汇风险管理日益上升的重要性。本文第一部分指出外汇商品已经成为当今最炙手可热得商品,并且介绍了以美元为中心的七大交易货币的汇率特点,包括各个国家的经济概况,各国货币和财政政策的主要制定者,各国货币的重要特征以及影响各国汇率走势的重要经济指标等。本文第二部分深刻剖析了2005年7月21日进行的人民币汇率改革的深层次意义,并且从中国国际能源战略的视角剖析了汇率改革的深层次含义。第二章的后半部分分析了中国高额外汇储备后的隐忧,并且为政府如何管理利用好万亿外汇储备提出了建议。本文的第三部分介绍了外汇市场中的经典技术分析方法即波浪理论与时间周期理论的原理和具体应用,为预测汇率走势和防范外汇风险提供了一种重要的分析手段。本文的第四部分包括全文的第四章和第五章。第四章论述了在美元长期贬值,非美货币以及人民币长期升值的预期下,如何对我国企业进行外汇风险管理,从而有效地防范外汇风险。第五章属于案例分析部分,详细地介绍了两家公司的外汇风险管理方法,希望其他的企业能够加以借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese foreign exchange reserves have been over one trillion USD by the end of 2006, exceeding Japan to become the country with the highest amount of foreign exchange reserves. How to make good use of these reserves has become a major issue for our government to deal with. One the other hand, the appreciation of RMB has been up to 4.7% from Jul. 21, 2005 to Dec. 31, 2006.The fluctuation of foreign exchange rate impacts the enterprises productive activity and financial income and expenses greatly. Therefore, the management and prevention of foreign exchange risks has been of crucial importance for an enterprise to become profitable. However, most enterprises have not realized the increasing importance of foreign exchange risks up to now.The first part of this paper points out that foreign currencies have already become the most popular commodities up to now and introduces the exchange rates characteristics of the USD centered seven main world currencies including the economy situation of every country, their monetary and fiscal policies makers, the main characteristics of the currencies and the most influential economic indicators.The second part elaborates the significance of the exchange rate reform since Jul.21, 2005 in terms of China’s international energy strategy. The latter part analyses the potential risks that underlying China’s huge amount of foreign exchange reserves, making suggestions on how to make good use of these reserves.The third part elaborates the principle and application of Technical Analysis named Wave and Period Theory, providing a very important tool for foreign exchange rate prediction and risk management.The fourth part includes the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter. The fourth chapter elaborates how to manage and prevent the foreign exchange risks under the anticipation of the depreciation of the USD. The fifth chapter introduces how a insurance company and Jinhai Grain company manage and prevent the foreign exchange risks, hoping other enterprises could take their experiences as references.更多还原