【作者】 冒刘燕；

【导师】 陈一梅；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 本文将实物期权理论应用到水运建设项目的投资决策中,给项目管理者提供了一个崭新的投资决策思路,对促进水运建设项目投资的科学化、合理化具有重要意义。目前,水运建设项目的投资决策是以经济净现值作为国民经济评价的主要指标。判断准则是:如果经济净现值大于零,则立刻进行投资;如果经济净现值小于零,则拒绝投资该项目,并且以后再也不考虑。这是一种刚性决策,没有考虑项目的灵活性价值和战略价值。我国正处在社会主义的初级阶段,交通运输基础设施是国民经济发展的“瓶颈”。交通运输基础设施的建设应有适度的超前和能力储备,并留有发展余地。经济净现值法往往会导致对水运建设项目价值的低估,造成投资决策的失误。本文用实物期权理论对净现值指标进行修正,认为项目的真正价值应等于项目的实物期权价值与净现值之和。在投资决策时,应根据项目的真正价值进行决策。如果项目的真正价值大于零,则应该进行投资。本文通过对长湖申线航道改造工程的全过程评价,指出了净现值法对水运建设项目价值的低估会造成巨大的损失。在此基础上,将实物期权的基本思想引入到水运建设项目的投资决策中,建立离散型实物期权定价模型和连续型实物期权定价模型。根据实物期权的要求对投资项目进行了重新分类,给出了实物期权的分析步骤。将实物期权应用到秦淮河航道等级提升问题的研究中,对其实物期权价值进行定价,并且对实物期权价值的影响因素进行了分析。本文研究认为水运建设项目由于其自身的特点,具有很大的实物期权价值。在水运建设项目的投资决策中,考虑它的实物期权价值对水运建设项目的科学、合理规划、促进水运经济的健康发展具有非常积极的意义,推动国民经济的快速发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real option is applied in the decision-making of water transportation construction. It gives the manager a new decision-making thinking. It accelerates the decision-making scientific and rationalization.Now water transportation construction decision-making is mainly based on the net present value of national economic evaluation. The rule of the judgment is: when the net present value is more than zero, the project will be accepted and actualized right now, otherwise, it will be refused and never taken into account. This is a rigid decision-making, it doesn’t consider the flexibility and strategic value. China is a development state. The infrastructure of transportation is behind of the evolution of national economy, it should have a proper lead and developmental space. The net present value always underestimate the value of water transportation construction, and lead to a mistake decision-making.Real option is applied to correct the net present value. It thinks that the real value of a project is including of the real option value and net present value. During the decision-making, the governor should base on the real value of the project. If it is more than zero, the project should be brought into effect.Based on the overall process of Changxin-Huzhou-Shanghai channel rebuild work, net present value underrate the worth of the water transportation construction and lead a huge losing is pointed out. According to these, the basic thought of real option is introduced to the water transportation construction decision-making. Discrete former and sequential former to make a price for the real option of the project are established. In accordance with the demand of the real option, the investment projects are reclassified. Analytic procedure of real option is provided. In the research of Qinhuai River channel classification promotion, real option is used to measure a value of the project, and influential factor of real option is analyzed.The conclusion of the research is water transportation construction has high real option value in virtue of the characteristic of itself. In water transportation construction decision-making, taking into account the real option value of the project can boost the scientific and reasonable programming, speed water transportation economy develop properly and drive forward the national economy.更多还原