【作者】 吴芸；

【导师】 赵国杰；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 为了有效的参与和影响与环境有关的决策与政策制定过程,为了使与国民核算系统挂钩,为了最终形成一个以环境流量为主线的环境账户,必须进行环境经济损失计量。回顾20世纪80年代至今关于中国环境经济损失计量的各项研究,人们无疑可以发现其间的不少进展。然而,应当坦率而公正的承认,这些进展都不是根本性的。中国环境经济损失存在的缺陷在世界上(无论是发达国家还是发展中国家)的环境经济学研究中也是存在的。然而,这些问题的解决对包括中国在内的发展中国家有着特殊的重要性。本文旨在通过采用灰色模型对于浙江省酸雨造成的农业经济损失进行估算和预测,以期对我国的环境经济损失研究有所贡献。本文第一章是前言,概括介绍了发展、环境与经济分析的发展过程;第二章首先阐述了环境影响评价的意义,目标,以及环境影响的分类,然后着重讨论了环境评价所普遍采用的技术,和它们的分类,具体适用情况,评估流程图,最后介绍了环境影响评价技术的局限性;第三章是中国污染破坏的损失计算,在介绍了环境污染损失计量的主要规则后,文中将中国污染损失几种计算结果进行了比较和评价,初步讨论了中国污染损失结构,最后概括了生态环境破坏计算的原则;第四章是酸雨问题,介绍了什么是酸雨及其形成机制,分析了酸雨的成因与危害;第五章是论文的核心,研究的主要内容是用灰色模型计算并预测浙江省酸雨对农作物造成的经济损失。这一章里,先介绍了灰色系统理论及其基本原理,主要内容,并进行建模,推导出GM(1,1)和GM(1,N)的累加公式,接着运用收集来的数据,估算和预测出浙江省各年的农作物损失和酸雨的危害,并进行数据分析和讨论,最后对酸雨防治对策进行初步探讨。第6章是最后一章,给出了中国环境经济损失计量研究的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to effectively participate in the policy design process concerning environment, connect with SNA, and finally form an environmental account mainly based on environment flux, we must conduct economic evaluation of environmental impacts. Dating back to 1980’s, the researchers on economic evaluation of environmental impacts have made some progress in China. However, we should admit that the progress is not radical. The flaws in the researches in China can be found in other places of the world. So solving the problems is of great importance to other developing countries. The paper is trying to make some contributions to the study of environmental impacts evaluation by estimating and predicting the agricultural losses in Zhejiang Province using Grey Model.Chapter one is preface which introduces the development of environment and economic analysis. The second chapter explored the meaning, target, and the classification of environmental impact evaluation. Then it emphasizes on the technologies that are commonly used, their categories, applicable situation, and process. In the end, their limitations are discussed. Chapter 3, the economic losses of pollution in China, introduces the rules in economic evaluation of environmental impacts firstly, then compares and estimates the several results in the field in China. And the structure of pollution in China is discussed. Finally, the principles of ecologically environmental impacts evaluation are explored. In Chapter 4, it includes the definition of acid rain, its forming mechanism, causes and influences. Chapter 5 is the core of this paper. It mainly evaluates and predicts the economic losses caused by acid rain on agriculture in Zhejiang Province. At first, fundamental principles of Grey Theory, its content, and the models are introduced. And then, the accumulative formula of GM(1,1) and GM(1,N) are deduced and the agricultural losses every year in Zhejiang Province are estimated and predicted. At last, the countermeasures of acid rain are explored. Chapter 6 is the final chapter of the paper and it proposed several suggestions on researches about environmental impact evaluation.更多还原