【作者】 王玮；

【导师】 张东山；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 产业经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 主导产业的培育与选择是区域经济发展的关键。高新技术型主导产业，是指在高新技术领域中，具有一定规模、能够充分发挥经济技术优势、以技术创新改变生产函数，并对经济发展和产业结构演进有强大促进和带动作用的产业。关于高新技术型主导产业选择的理论和实践研究，对区域内做出适时的产业战略决策具有十分重要的意义。 在结构上，本文首先回顾了有关区域主导产业选择的理论，并着重对主导产业的概念、主导产业选择理论的发展及其在高新技术领域中的应用等问题进行了分析。随后，本文分析了国内外有关构建主导产业选择体系的基本原则和构建步骤，并确立了区域高新技术型主导产业的选择基准和指标体系。该模型共分三个层次：目标层——高新技术型主导产业的选择；准则层——产业增长潜力基准、区域比较优势基准、需求收入弹性基准、关联效应基准、技术进步基准、可持续发展基准；指标层——市场占有率、产业增长率、新产品销售收入比率、资金利税偏离度、区位商、需求收入弹性、感应度系数、影响度系数、生产率上升率、科技经费比率、能源消耗产值率、三废治理系数。 最后，本文以上海市为例进行了实证分析，依据所构建的选择体系，并结合层次分析法和专家评分法，选择出上海市应该优先发展的高新技术产业。更多还原

【Abstract】 The choice and development of the dominate industry are keys to regional economic development. The regional hi-tech dominate industries are from the hi-tech field, which have been with the huge scale of economic and technical advantages together with the strong and leading role in promoting the economics. Therefore, the theory and practice-oriented researches about the selection of high-tech industries are significant important to the regional industrial strategic decision.Firstly, the thesis reviews the theories about selection of the regional dominate industries. It includes the definition of the dominate industry concept, the latest development of the selection theories and the application of the selection theories in the hi-tech field. Subsequently, the thesis analyzes the basic principles and steps to set the selection benchmarks and indicators, and also establishes a selection model for the regional high-tech dominates industries. The model includes three aspects: objective aspect - selection of the high-tech dominate industries; benchmark aspect -industrial potential growth benchmark, regional comparative advantage benchmark, income-demand elasticity benchmark, correlation effect; indicator aspect - market share, industrial growth, new products sales ratio, deviation of the profit-tax, regional business entropy, income-demand elasticity, the coefficient of response, the coefficient of impact, the rate of increase in productivity, science and technology investment rate, energy consumption-output rate and wastes recycle rate.At last, based on the constructed model and the AHP theory, the thesis makes the empirical analysis on Shanghai, and selects the certain hi-tech industries that the government should give priority to.更多还原