【作者】 陈战波；

【导师】 张德生；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 应用数学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 用水量预测在城市建设规划和供水系统调度管理中具有重要的作用。用水量预测主要包括:年用水量预测,季度用水量预测,月用水量预测,日用水量预测和时用水量预测。其中,日用水量预测占据着重要的地位,它不仅能直接指导水厂的生产实践,更能为水厂间的优化调度提供可靠的技术支持。本文在分析西安市供水系统原始观测数据资料的基础上,建立了西安市日用水量多元非参数回归模型、部分线性自回归模型和其它预测模型,具体内容如下:1.建立了西安市日用水量的多元线性回归模型,对模型进行了χ2检验和残差修正,同时建立了西安市日用水量的综合预测模型,计算结果表明,该模型预测精度不高。2.利用核估计和局部线性估计方法建立了西安市日用水量的多元非参数回归模型。通过对日用水量的拟合与预测,结果表明多元非参数回归模型拟合与预测误差较小,能满足供水系统的需要。3.根据BJ时间序列建模方法,建立了西安市日用水量的线性自回归模型。结果表明,该模型预测精度不高。4.建立了西安市日用水量的部分线性自回归模型,其中线性部分考虑日用水量,非线性部分考虑当天的最高温度,该模型综合了非参数回归模型和线性自回归模型的优点,与前三种建模方法比较,该模型在拟合与预测精度上有所提高,证明该方法在西安市日用水量预测这四种模型中效果最优。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water-use forecasting is important for municipal construction planning and the operation of water-supply system. Water-use forecasting is composed of the yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily and hourly municipal water-use forecasting. In the several parts, daily one has a key-position. It may not only directly guide the production of water-supply corporations, but also offer the technical service for optimal scheduling among several water-supply corporations. This paper has established nonparametric regression model, partially linear AR model and other forecasting models of xi’an urban daily water demand based on the xi’an daily water-use data. The four aspects are as follows:The multi linear regression model has been set up and the prediction error is checked by theχ2 method. The prediction error is corrected, at last xi’an daily water-use synthesis forecasting model is set up and the prediction error is not good.Based on the regression function estimated by the kernel estimation and local linear estimation, the nonparametric multi regression model of xi’an urban daily water demand is set up. By the comparison of fact date, it was proved that the nonparametric multi regression model can meet the practical requirement of water supply dispatch system.According to BJ time series method, the linear AR model of xi’an water daily demand is set up. The computation result shows that the forecasting model for the daily water-consumption is not good.The partially linear AR model of xi’an water daily demand is set up. The linear aspect takes into account the water demand and the nonlinear aspect takes into account tiptop temperature. This model not only has the merit of regressive model but also has the linear autoregressive model merit, so its forecasting result is better. By the comparison of the former three models, this method is best for the xi’an water daily demand forecasting.更多还原