【作者】 王静；

【导师】 孔令江； 刘慕仁；

【作者基本信息】 广西师范大学 ， 理论物理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 舆论是指社会公众意见的集合,它是社会行为的基础,能加速或阻碍社会问题的解决。舆论是社会系统固有的特性,它的传播过程呈现纷繁复杂的形式,是一个典型的社会复杂系统的演化过程。舆论在预测社会发展趋势,沟通和调整社会关系,激励和监督社会成员和社会团体,促进社会各项事业发展等方面具有重要作用。因此,研究舆论在社会中的传播与传播的性质、规律以及如何控制舆论传播的导向有着重要的现实意义,本文的主要工作是在现有舆论研究的基础上,提出相应的元胞自动机舆论演化模型,通过计算机数值模拟,对舆论传播的性质和规律进行分析和研究,进一步加深对舆论传播的认识。第一章介绍了舆论传播研究的意义、特征和发展概况以及复杂网络理论与应用,还介绍了手机短信息传播和元胞自动机原理。第二章模拟和分析了体育场中观众的群体行为模型,讨论模型的演化随模型参数变化的趋势。第三章在Hacken提出的舆论模型的基础上,建立元胞自动机Hacken舆论模型,通过计算机数值模拟,讨论环境和倾向性因素对舆论传播的影响。社会学家认为,社会的舆论行为是人和环境相互作用的函数,人要在一定社会环境中生存,无数个体在特定时间对具体事件的意见,总是伴随环境与他人的影响趋向一致化。通过计算机模拟分析我们得到了与Hacken及社会学家基本一致的结论。第四章建立了基于小世界网络的手机短信息传播模型,定义了短信息转发量、接受密度和转发密度,研究了小世界网络的重新连接概率、近邻数以及手机用户转发概率对短信息传播的影响,从而深入地了解以手机短信这一特定媒介进行的非面对面的舆论传播的特点和规律。手机短信具有手机用户之间点对点或者点对多点(网络上的短信群发)直接发送和接收的功能。通过在小世界网络上对手机短信传播过程的模拟分析可见,手机短信具备产生“舆论场”的能力,如果很好地开发、利用有利于社会发展的舆论宣传;反之,将会给社会带来巨大的损失。第五章对现实网络实证结果表明,对于大多数大规模真实网络用幂率分布来描述它们的度分布更加精确,尽管小世界模型能很好的刻画现实世界的小世界性,但其节点的度分布为指数分布形式。为了使我们的模拟结果更接近实际,将手机短信模型建立在无标度网更多还原

【Abstract】 The public opinion refers to a rally on the public’s suggestion, it is a foundation of the social behavior, can accelerate or hinder the settlement of the social concern. The public opinion is the evolution course of a typical social complicated system built-in property, the numerous and complicated form appears in its spread course. In the aspects of predicting the development trend of human society, relaxing and adjusting the relationship between various groups in society, and accelerating the social development, public opinion plays a very important role. Thus it is valuable to make researches on the infection of public opinion,especially the process of the infection and the characteristic of public opinion, and how to control it. On the basis that the existing public opinion studies we will perform dynamic simulation of the CA model, study the process of the infection and the characteristic of public opinion through the numerical simulation of the computer, and then strengthen the understanding the infection of public opinion in this paper.In chapter one we have introduced the value on studying the infection of public opinion, the characteristic and development of public opinion, complicated network theory, and have introduced mobile-telephones short message dissemination and the mechanism of cellular automaton.In chapter two we have studied the model of the audience’s behaviors in stadium, and also discussed the evolvement changing of the model on its parameters.On the basis of public opinion model that Hacken has put forward, we establish cellular automaton Hacken public opinion model and discuss the influence that the environment and preference factor to the public opinion through the numerical simulation of the computer in chapter three. The sociologist believed that, human’s public opinion behavior is the function that the people interact with the environment, people should survive in the certain social environment, and the innumerable individuals’opinion on one concrete event always follow the environment and other people’s factors tend to and melt unanimously in particular time. And we have got the conclusions更多还原