【作者】 陈峰；

【导师】 萧松华；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本文在回顾西方经济学界比较流行的学习概念及其起源、主要的学习方法、中央银行学习与货币政策等方面的研究成果之基础上，通过在标准的宏观经济学分析框架中加入“学习”因素，从理论和模型的角度详细分析了中央银行学习对货币政策操作选择的影响。理论分析显示，在完全信息条件下，由于私人部门和央行学习行为的相互作用，规则优于相机抉择，但在不完全信息条件下，因学习难度加大，央行不能完全准确地学习到私人部门预期形成的规则等，学习结果的不确定性增多，货币政策操作选择将变得复杂。数理研究显示，中央银行学习使在完全信息条件下，央行规则的福利损失小于其相机抉择的福利损失，规则优于相机抉择，而在不完全信息条件下，则可以求得一个阀值或临界值，当通货膨胀高于此临界值时，规则优于相机抉择，相反，当通货膨胀低于此临界值时，相机抉择优于规则。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this dissertation we analyze the problem of the influence of central bank learning on monetary policy operation choice. In the first, this dissertation introduces the concept of "learning", which is popular in the field of western economics, and analyzes the origin of the concept, as well as the central learning approach. Then, we mainly review the researchful fruit in central bank learning and monetary policy.We add the factor of "learning" to the standard analysis framework of macroeconomics, and detailedly analyze the problem of central bank learning and monetary policy operation choice from the angle of theory and model. The academic analysis shows that rule is superior to discretion in the condition of complete information, but in the condition of incomplete information, central bank can’t accurately learn the rule of private sector’s expectation formation, etc., monetary policy operation choice becomes complex. Through the methods of mathematical economics, we find that in the condition of complete information, when central bank chooses rule’s monetary policy, its welfare loss will less than it chooses discretion’s monetary policy. However, in the condition of incomplete information, we can get a threshold vale, if the inflation rate exceeds this threshold, rule will be superior to discretion, and if the inflation rate is less than this threshold, discretion will be superior to rule.更多还原