【作者】 黄林；

【导师】 蒋惠园；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 城际快速轨道交通是城市群规划过程中重大的公益性基础设施，对城市群的全局和发展模式将产生深远的影响，其建设是一个涉及面广、综合性很强的系统工程。而客流预测则是轨道交通投资决策的基础，只有具备足够大的客运交通需求，轨道交通投资建设才是合理的。客流预测是衡量建设项目经济成本、预测建设项目投入运营后经济效益的关键指标。目前，四阶段法是进行交通运输需求预测时普遍采用的理论方法，世界银行、亚洲银行交通运输项目一般均采用四阶段预测法来确定运输需求量，并以此评估项目的可行性和制定项目技术标准。我国高等级公路及城市交通建设项目已全部采用四阶段法预测运输需求，绝大部分铁路建设项目也采用四阶段预测法。本文正是以广州至珠海城际快速轨道交通的客流预测为研究课题，采用四阶段法对轨道交通的客流量进行预测。 论文分析了国内外轨道交通客流预测的现状及成果、广州至珠海沿线地区社会与经济发展现状以及该地区交通的发展现状和存在的问题。综合考虑这些因素，建立起一个科学、客观的四阶段预测方法体系，并分析计算得出轨道交通客流预测的关键性定量指标。文章采用了交通规划学的四阶段预测法进行预测，通过比较各个预测模型的适用范围及本课题的客观实际情况，在客流生成、客流分布、方式划分和客流分配四个阶段分别选用了多元回归与弹性系数综合分析模型、双约束重力模型、Logit模型以及最短路径模型进行预测，对于预测模型中有关参数的标定采用数学估计方法，或借鉴国内外同类项目的参数取值。然后分析客流预测结果，可得到轨道交通全日客流量、全日客流周转量、全日分小时段客流量、全日高峰小时客流量、高峰小时最大断面客流量以及全日各车站上下车客流等关键定量指标，这些客流指标可为轨道交通的规划建设提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The city cluster fast rail transit is a significant public infrastructure in the process of urban cluster’s planning, it will have profound influence to the urban cluster’s overall situation and development pattern, and its construction will be a systems engineering with broad affected area and strong comprehension. At the same time, the passenger flow forecast is the foundation of rail transit investment decision-making, only when there has enough passenger transport demand, the rail transit investment construction maybe is reasonable. Passenger flow forecast is a key indicator to weigh the basic project economic cost and economic benefit after a project puts into service. At present, four stages predict method is the universal theory when forecasting transport demand, World Bank, Asian Bank are all commonly use this method to determine transport demand, and also use it to appraise project’s feasibility and technical standard. Our nation’s first-class highway and the municipal transportation projects have all used four stages predict method to forecast transport demand; majorities of railroad project also use this method. This article is precisely taking the passenger flow forecast of Guangzhou-Zhuhai rapid rail transit as the research topic, using four stages predict method to forecast the rail transit’s passenger flow volume.The paper has analyzed the present situation and achievement of domestic and overseas rail transit passenger flow forecast, the society and economical development present situation as well as local transportation development present situation and existent problem along the route area between Guangzhou and Zhuhai. Overall evaluating these factors, the writer establishes a scientific, objective four stages forecast method system, and obtains some crucial quantitative indicators of the rail transit passenger flow forecast. The article uses four stages forecast method to forecast passenger flow, with comparing each forecast model and this project’s actual situation, it selects regression-elasticity coefficients method model, dual-constrained gravity model, Logit model as well as shortest path model separately to carry on the forecast in traffic production, traffic distribution, mode-split and traffic assignment this four stages. The related parameter’s confirmation uses mathematics estimate更多还原