【作者】 万兴；

【导师】 胡汉辉； 范金；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 产业经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 1997到2010年间,中国经济加速从计划经济向社会主义市场经济体制的转变;中国加入了世界贸易组织,并逐步履行有关的入世承诺。江苏作为沿海地区的经济发达省份和外商投资的热点地区,受这一转变的影响尤为巨大。这种影响在不同的产业间和产业内部似乎并不平衡。鉴于制造业在整个国民经济中占有的地位,我们需要了解面对外部环境的变化,制造业已经发生并将要发生什么样的变化,以及这些变化的机理是什么。本文以江苏省制造业1997至2004年的有关数据为实证基础,分析了江苏制造业产业结构的变动规律,预测了到2010年江苏制造业产业结构的演化趋势,并测算了江苏制造业各部门的TFP增长率及其分解。全文共分为七章。第一章绪论介绍了江苏制造业的概况,总结了中国加入WTO对制造业可能的影响,并提出问题。第二章文献综述,回顾了产业结构理论,以及利用一般均衡方法对产业结构的研究。第三章介绍了江苏制造业动态递归CGE模型,包括模型的模块,数据来源以及模型检验。第四章描述了1999-2004年江苏制造业的演化过程,并利用第三章所建立的CGE模型,模拟了到2010年江苏制造业的结构变化情况。第五章在第四章的基础上,进一步探讨了江苏制造业的演化机理。第六章给出对策性建议,并对未来的研究进行了展望。本文主要研究结论:第一,自1997年以来,江苏制造业在保持总量增长的同时,要素回报率有所提升,大部分部门的资本回报率增长超过劳动报酬率的增长。第二、1998至2004年以来,江苏制造业TFP增长率呈下降趋势。第三,自1997年以来,投资和出口已经成为推动江苏制造业增长的主要力量,江苏制造业产出对省际调出的依赖程度下降了50%以上。第四,入世后,江苏制造业资本品部门将有较大增长,但增长的效率还不高。最后,入世后,江苏制造业中间投入品部门虽然有较大增长,但仍然不能满足经济发展的需求。更多还原

【Abstract】 From 1997 to 2010, China’s economy has been transferring from planned economy to socialist market economy; China has jointed the World Trade Organization (WTO), and will fulfill its commitment to the WTO during the period. Jiangsu, as a coastal developed province, has been greatly influenced by above-mentioned transition. Such impact is unbalance between and within industries. The paper will study operation and evolution basics of Jaingsu’s manufacturing sector in the period from 1997 to 2010.Based on 1997-2004 data of Jiangsu manufacturing sector, the paper analyzes the structural change of Jiangsu manufacturing sector, estimates TFP growth and its components, and forecasts the structure of the sector until 2010. The paper comprises of seven chapters. Chapter I gives brief introduction of Jiangsu’s manufacturing sector, summarizes possible impact of China’s entry into the WTO on the sector, and raises problems. Chapter II reviews literatures about both industrial structure and the general equilibrium methods used to study industrial structure. Chapter III describes a recursive dynamic general equilibrium model developed for studying Jiangsu manufacturing sector. Chapter IV briefs the evolution process of the sector, and simulates the structure change of the sector using the model developed in the previous chapter. Chapter V further studies the logic behind the evolution. Chapter VI gives policy suggestions and predicts orientation of future research.The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:Firstly, since 1997 Jiangsu’s manufacturing industry has maintained growth in terms of quantity and return on factors, while most of its sectors have witnessed a larger return on capital compared with return on labor.Secondly, from 1997 to 2004 Jiangsu’s manufacturing industry suffered from a decline in TFP growth.Thirdly, since 1997 investment and exports have become the major force driving growth of Jiangsu’s manufacturing industry, while its dependence on domestic trade has dropped by 50%.Fourthly, after China’s accession to the WTO, the capital-goods sectors of Jiangsu’s manufacturing industry will enjoy high growth rate while its growth efficiency is not yet high.更多还原