【作者】 梅娟；

【导师】 胡汉辉； 范金；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 产业经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 新中国成立以来,特别是改革开放以来,中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就,但是作为一个农业大国,农村经济却一直处于相对落后的状态,制约了整个国民经济的进一步发展。要解决目前存在的困难和问题,如收入增长缓慢;农村居民消费能力不均衡;农村消费环境较差;新的消费热点尚待形成等等,应该从国民经济总体发展、从城乡统筹发展、从社会与经济协调发展等方面形成长远之计,不断提高农民的消费水平,进一步开拓农村市场。本文将运用基于一般均衡的社会核算矩阵技术、乘数理论及结构路径分析理论对农村居民消费问题进行深入分析。在建立的中国农村居民消费细化社会核算矩阵基础上,用乘数理论和结构路径分析方法对中国农村居民消费行为和消费模式进行科学的分析,探讨影响农村居民消费行为的中国宏观的和产业的经济要素,从而找出农村居民消费行为及模式与促进农村经济发展之间的关系,以寻求二者最大限度的相互支持。本文的研究表明,中国农村经济构成的各个部门之间的关系是很密切的,经济账户发展比较平衡,但是农村消费市场整体非常缺乏活力,居民的消费意识不强烈;增加服装产业和居住产业的投入会极大的增加农村劳动力的就业率;虽然家庭设备及服务产业对于增加农村居民收入有很大作用,但其产业带动性需要加以扶植。SAM技术由于基于一般均衡理论,能够对经济整体进行全面的分析,具有强大的功能和作用。本文基于中国农村居民消费细化SAM,利用乘数分析和结构路径分析研究农村市场中各产业、要素、不同家庭收入组的之间交互影响,拓展了SAM研究的作用和范围,对于其与产业经济相结合的研究是一种有益的尝试。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China has opened up to the outside world, Chinese economy has obtained an unbelievable achievement. However, as an agricultural country, the rural economics of China are still in a state of disadvantage and it has restricted further development of economy of the whole society. Lacking of impetus to rural market has been an important factor that restricts the development of national economy. To solve the existed problems and difficulties, such as slow increase of income, disequilibrium of consumptive ability of rural residents, lacking of new consumptive hotspots and so on, it should be considered from different views such as the overall development of national economy, a whole plan of city and country etc.. At last, a long-term stratagem should come into exist to improve the consumptive level of rural residents gradually and exploit further the rural market.Different from the popular method based on the local equilibrium theory, the study will do research on the consumptive issue of rural residents with the methods of the social accounting matrix technology, multiplier theory and path analysis based on the general equilibrium theory. The study tries to find out the relationship between consumptive behavior of rural residents and how to accelerate the development of rural economics. The conclusions suggest that the relationship between various departments that make up of rural economics is consanguineous and economic accounts develop with equilibrium correspondingly. However, the whole consumptive market of rural area is lack of energy and the inhabitant’s consumptive consciousness is not strong enough; Adding capital inflow to Clothing and Residence industries will greatly improve employ ratio of rural work force; Though the Household Facilities, Articles and Services Industry plays an important part in improving rural residents’incomes, its industrial driving character should be cultivated.SAM technology is based on the general equilibrium theory. As a result, it makes the analysis on economy more comprehensive. Based on Chinese Rural Residents Consumptive SAM, the study makes use of multiplier path and analysis to do research on intersectional influence between different industries, factors and income groups. What’s more, the appliance of SAM into multiplier and path analysis will expand the study scope and content of SAM and it’s a very constructive experiment to combine the SAM technology with industry economics.更多还原