【作者】 邓淑芬；

【导师】 吴广谋；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 系统工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 食品安全问题是一项复杂的系统工程,其问题的解决有赖于国民经济的发展、生物医学技术水平的提高以及消费意识的觉醒。在目前情况下,如何正确认识和预测食品安全问题需要理论的指导。本文从管理的角度,在系统分析食品安全问题现状的基础上,得出食品安全问题的主要症结在于食品的信任品特征(即食品安全信息不对称)。以食品安全信息不对称的经济分析作为理论基础,在增大食品安全信息化投入对食品供需方都有利的理论基础上,构建信号博弈模型和演化博弈模型,分析食品供应链的策略空间以及演化趋势。具体地说,本文主要从以下几个方面对食品供应链质量安全问题进行分析与预测研究:(1)从供应与需求两个方面分析食品市场的安全性现状,指出经济的发展是我国安全食品潜在需求增加的根本原因;(2)在分析国内外食品安全信息化现状及差距的基础上,应用系统思维观系统分析我国食品安全问题,研究指出我国食品安全问题根本原因在于食品安全信息不对称,在系统分析的前提下对食品安全信息化作了简要的经济分析,研究指出企业增加信息成本既有利于企业本身,又有利于消费者。该结论是后续研究的理论基础;(3)针对食品安全信息不对称及其特殊性,在已有研究的基础上,本文重点研究了食品供给方与消费者之间的信号博弈模型和演化博弈模型。在演化博弈模型中,本文引用系统科学关于动态过程和动力机制的观点,引入含有随机参数的消费者二元效用函数,用系统动力学方法分析非对称的非2×2食品安全重复博弈的演化稳定性。在本模型中,消费者的效用支付和食品供给方的利益支付之间没有可比性,但并不影响结论的推断。不考虑政府监管时,食品市场的演化趋势呈现多样性、复杂性,考虑政府监管时,从长时间看来食品安全问题将最终会得到解决;更多还原

【Abstract】 Food safety is a complex systems engineering, it depends on the development of national economy, the enhancement of biology and medicine technical level as well as consumers’consciousness of expense. Under the present situation, it needs theory instruction to know and the forecast food safety correctly.Based on the system analysis of food safety situation from the management angle, the main problem of food safety lies on the trust characteristic of food (namely asymmetrical information of food safety) can be obtained, based on economic analysis of the food safety information asymmetrical , that increasing food safety information puts will bring advantage to both the food consumers and suppliers can be drawn, then the signal game model and the evolution game model are set up, the strategy space and evolved tendency of food supply chain are analyzed. To be specific, this article mainly carries on the analysis and the forecast research from following several aspects to the quality safety problem of food supply chain.(1)The present secure situation of food market from the supply and the demand is analyzed, and points out the basic reason that the increase of our country safety food latent demand is the development economic;(2)Based on the analysis of foods safety information situation and the disparity between the domestic and foreign, our country food safety problem is analyzed with system view, the research points out basic reason of food safety problem in our country lies in asymmetrical information of food safety, a brief economic analysis based on the system analysis of food safety information is taken, the research points out the increasing the information cost is advantageous to both enterprises and consumers. This conclusion is the basis of the following research;更多还原