【作者】 赵朝智；

【导师】 夏飞； 周四军；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国民经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着社会的进步，消费需求的变化加快和大众对生活质量的提高，新产品正受到越来越大的重视，几乎所有企业都将新产品开发放在自身发展战略的突出位置。这主要是因为新产品开发可以使企业保持良好的发展趋势，促进企业成长，提高企业竞争优势。新产品的开发已逐渐成为企业发展的强有力的支柱。同时对新产品开发的经济效益进行分析、预测和评价及所得到的结论都是企业进行新产品开发的重要指导方法，新产品开发经济效益的分析、预测和评价的重要性，已经得到许多国内外企业的经验和教训的有力诠释。 本文以新产品开发的经济效益为分析主线，通过定性与定量分析相结合，考察了对新产品开发的经济效益进行分析、预测和评价的方法，并结合案例进行分析其所选择预测和评价方法的正确性。希望这些方法能给企业的决策者在理论上以指导，在实际应用中以帮助。 本论文首先通过相关资料调查出新产品开发的经济效益的现状和存在的主要问题，分析了国内外对新产品开发的经济效益的研究动态，指出了上述对新产品开发的经济效益的研究还具有片面性，其所进行的研究很大程度上不适应现代市场竞争的需要。针对上述不足，本文借鉴国内外先进企业的经验，对适应新产品开发经济效益需要的指标进行了归纳，将这些指标与社会形势需要和消费需求的变化有机地结合在一起，提出了一套较为完整的适应现代企业发展需要的新产品开发经济效益的指标。对后续所进行的预测和评价方法和模型的建立起到了有力的帮助和指导作用。随后在对新产品开发的经济效益进行预测和评价时，针对性地运用所设计的指标客观地来进行预测和评价。同时为验证所选的预测和评价方法的有效性，联系某企业的一个新产品开发的经济效益进行了相关的分析和研究，并与其实际情况相比较，证明了指标的选择的合理性和预测及评价方法的有效性。 特别提及的是，本文在对新产品开发的经济效益的指标进行设计时，提出了产品技术水平和顾客价值度这两个重要的指标。在对新产品开发的经济效益进行预测和评价时，提出了一套将定量调查法、层次分析法、关联度法和灰色预测模型及模糊评价法等多维统计方法结合起来对新产品开发的经济效益进行预测和评价。 最后，基于上述理论和案例分析，针对新产品开发的现状及在实践中所反映的问题，笔者提出了提高新产品开发经济效益的对策及有关的政策性建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the advancement of human society, rapidity of consumption and improvement of the living quality of people, new products are getting more recognition than before. Almost corporations have placed New Product Development (NPD) in prominent position. This is mostly because NPD can make enterprise keep better developing trend, accelerate growing-up, improvement predominance in market competition .In this way, NPD is becoming gradually powerful support in corporation’s development. Simultaneous the analysis, forecast and evaluate and conclusion which are important guidelines for enterprise’s NPD in New Product Profit (NPP).The importance of analysis, forecast and evaluate and conclusion in NPP has been illuminated by a great deal of experience and lessons in China and oversea enterprises.This paper takes NPP as the main lines of analysis, through the combine of qualitative and quantitative analysis, reviews the way of analysis, forecast and evaluate in NPP, and links the case with above theory to estimate the correctness in the choice of forecast and evaluate, so as to hope it to instruct in theory and help in practice to the decision-maker of enterprises.This paper investigates the actuality and the primary problem of NPP, and analyzes the research trends of NPP in China and oversea enterprises, and points the unilateralism in the research of NPP, so in a sense, the referring research can’t adapt to the need of present-day market competition. This paper uses advanced experience of inside and outside enterprises for reference to the above deficiency. Concluding some index to suit the need of NPP and combine the index with the need of social economy and requirement of consumption, bringing forward one suit of index which is more integrated with NPP for adapting to the need of enterprise development. These indexes will get more help and guidance to the following establishing of ways and means of forecast and evaluate and to reflect objectively existent question of NPP. Synchronously, this paper takes one corporation’s case of NPP to analysis and research to validate the correctness of choosing of forecast and evaluate. Which prove the rationality of choosing of index and validity of forecast and evaluate through comparing with the fact.This paper put forward two important indexes including product technique and customer-value when author design the index of NPP. It also let quantitative research,AHP, gray system prediction and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation combine to forecast and evaluate for the NPP?Finally, based on theory and analysis of case, and aimed on actuality of NPP and reflective question of practice, author put forward countermeasure to increase NPP and correlative policy-suggestion.更多还原